Climate change threatens security

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Offline Rozina Akter

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Climate change threatens security
« on: May 19, 2014, 12:54:22 PM »
A UN panel released on April 14 a comprehensive assessment of the potential and on-going effects of climate change on our planet. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has termed this report as 'overwhelming evidence of the scale of the possible impacts' that changes in climate and associated variability is having on our lives.

It has been observed that most of the observed changes resulting from climate change concern natural systems, such as water resources, sea levels or biodiversity. However, changes to human systems such as food production and livelihoods have also been attributed to global warming. The report has also suggested that global warming is altering patterns of rainfall, melting snow and ice, and this in turn is affecting water resources in terms of both quality and quantity. Scientists have concluded that as a result of this evolving phenomenon, wildlife on land, in the rivers and the oceans are beginning to shift their geographic ranges, migration patterns and seasonal behaviour.

Studies carried out by other groups of environmental scientists have concluded that climate variability is having a mixture of impacts on food production, with some areas benefiting from changes, while others are being hit hard. It is indicated that the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive ones.

PRO-ACTIVE ENGAGEMENT: It may be recalled that throughout history, people have been trying to cope with a changing climate - with varying degrees of success. Pro-active engagement has, however, intensified at the political and government levels since the convening of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992 and the subsequent formulation of the Agenda 21. Governmental action has assumed greater seriousness over the last decade. Efforts have been underway at various levels to develop adaptation plans and integration of climate considerations into existing programmes related to disaster risk management and water management.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been playing an instrumental role in this regard and trying to provide the world with a clearer scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. The offspring of two UN bodies, the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme, the IPCC, commissioned by the governments of 195 countries belonging to the UN, has, till now, issued four significant assessment reports on the state of our world's climate conditions.

Governments attach special importance to their conclusions. This has been particularly true in Africa where governments have started to build systems for disaster risk management and taking basic public health measures based on IPCC's suggestions. In Europe, adaptation policies are also now developing across all levels of government taking into consideration their conclusions. In North America, "incremental" planning is taking place, with some proactive adaptation to protect long-term investments in energy infrastructure". Australia is also focusing in general not only on undertaking adaptation efforts on sea level rise, but also in southern Australia, especially on water scarcity.

IPCC REPORT WARNS: The latest IPCC report has warned that the effectiveness of adaptation procedures can be limited. Continuing uncertainty about the severity and timing of climate impacts, as well as the long timeframes involved, are beginning to complicate the decision-making process and the principles for effective adaptation. They have particularly noted that planning and implementation can be enhanced through complementary actions by different governments. It has been observed that the overall risks of climate change impacts could then be reduced by limiting the rate and magnitude of climate change.

The latest document outlines the key risks of continued warming, according to criteria such as their magnitude, probability, or irreversibility. They have been designed to comply with article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which refers to "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Other risks that have received attention include  reference to possible deaths, injuries and health impacts associated with, flooding in low-lying coastal zones or because of heat waves. The breakdown of infrastructure following extreme weather events, the disruption of food production and supply and the negative impact on communities that depend on threatened ecosystems - such as coastal fisheries - have also been identified in their list. These risks have been grouped into a smaller number of categories known as "reasons for concern". These, according to the scientists, include singular events, such as loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which would raise the sea level by a staggering seven meters.

It is clear that some of the risks associated with climate change will be felt all over the globe but its intensity will be limited to particular sectors or regions of the world. The section of the global population who will experience water scarcity and the fraction that might be affected by major river floods are expected to increase with the level of warming as this century unfolds. Coastal and low-lying areas will experience submergence, flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. Land-based and freshwater wildlife species will face an increased risk of extinction under the projected climate change scenarios for the century, especially as global warming interacts with other factors such as habitat changes, exploitation by humans, and invasive species. Under the high emissions scenario, there could also be a "high risk of abrupt and irreversible regional-scale change" to those same ecosystems. Fish and other marine animals will shift their ranges, causing invasions of high-latitude seas by low latitude species and local extinctions of marine animals in the tropics. This might pose the risk of reduced supplies of fish with consequences for incomes and employment. Ocean acidification will pose substantial risks to marine ecosystems, particularly at the poles and at coral reefs.

For the major food crops, such as wheat, rice and maize, in tropical and temperate regions, global warming without adaptation is projected to negatively affect production for temperature rises of 2C or more above 20th Century levels. While positive effects are also expected, all aspects of food security will potentially be impacted by climate change.

It is generally agreed that the impacts on the global economy, though difficult to exactly estimate, will certainly slow down economic growth, making efforts to tackle poverty more difficult. Because of increased internal as well as external migration arising out of  inundation of land by rising seas, human health and security will most certainly enhance the chances of conflict and have implications for territorial integrity. 

Anyone who thought climate change was something happening far away, to someone else, should think again. According to the world's leading scientists, climate change is an increasing threat to human safety around the world.

Unfortunately, though climate change as a security threat has been discussed several times in the UN Security Council, movement forward has been limited because of absence of correct political will and lobbying by business sectors that might be affected because of measures that will have to be taken to reduce the causes of climate variability.

We need to understand that climate change is a threat as great as nuclear proliferation or terrorism. It carries the potential to destabilise governments and ignite conflict.

The Security Council has not as yet taken decisive steps. US Secretary of State Kerry has, however, generated some impetus by acknowledging the gravity of the threat. The United States and China need to be more pro-active. The US energy policy till now has adopted token measures toward climate solutions compared with what it does to maintain fossil fuel addiction. Rather than a faceless climate change it is the coal plants, oil rigs and the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which would transfer crude oil from Canada to the US. What Kerry and the Chinese leadership need to understand is that permitting coal, oil and gas to be extracted and burned, in the manner it is being done currently, is only locking us into more climate destruction. This is bound to have a multiplier effect.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has recently declared a war on pollution. But China still needs to "walk the talk", which, as a start, means ensuring that provinces like Inner Mongolia and Shanxi announce effective coal "caps" and ensure that air pollution prevention plans are fully enforced.

US AND CHINA: It's time for the US and China to stop energy waste and shift to an economy run on renewables - the true energy of peace. In this regard one can only agree with the observation that all governments should join the coalition fighting the world war against climate change. This is a war that is a life and death struggle and needs investment of a major part of the resources being set aside presently by governments for pursuing or defending themselves against possible violent conflict.

The seriousness of the situation has been underlined by another UN report on climate change released in April. It has called for trebling of the planet's use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. The report has argued that the trend of increased carbon emissions can be reversed only if a "massive shift" in energy use is made. It has pointed out that unless significant action is taken by 2030, global temperatures could rise by more than 2 degrees C - a highly dangerous situation.

Bangladesh, over the last five years has been stressing on renewables as a source of energy. It is being pursued with full commitment in the sphere of agriculture and is helping to raise our socio-economic development. This is being done by availing of cleaner, more efficient energy sources. Solar power is beginning to pay dividends in our rural hinterland. Climate variability will affect us, but with international assistance, we will, hopefully, be able to overcome the future challenges that will emanate from climate change.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is specialised in foreign affairs, right to information, good governance and is Chairman, Bangladesh Renewable Energy Society.
Rozina Akter
Assistant Professor
Department Of Business Administration

Offline utpalruet

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Re: Climate change threatens security
« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2014, 05:41:09 PM »
Thanks for sharing
Utpal Saha
Lecturer, Dept of EEE
Faculty of Engineering
ID: 710001154