"Like any other large-scale refugee situation, the best solution for the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh is to go back home voluntarily, in safety and dignity, in pursuit of normal lives once again. Voluntary repatriation is normally the only viable solution for most refugee situations in the world. Around 70 percent of world’s refugees since World War II have found durable solutions by returning home.
The refugees themselves have expressed their wish to go back home in Myanmar, if they can do so in safety and dignity and some basic conditions are met. But they see no hope on the horizon in this regard. They were told last year that Myanmar had agreed to take back those who wished to return voluntarily under a bilateral agreement with the Government of Bangladesh. But when the scheduled date for commencement of repatriation arrived on November 15, 2018, there were no volunteers, mainly because they received no guarantees from the Myanmar authorities on their basic demands. Since then, there has been very little progress in the situation, only empty assurances from time to time. Most observers agree that safe and stable return under existing circumstances is not conceivable.
With the refugees thus not willing to go back, there was growing speculation, both inside and outside the camps, about the other two possible solutions, namely third country resettlement and local integration. They appear to have subsided for the time being but they are likely to resurface. It is important that they are nipped in the bud so that false expectations are not created.
As for third country resettlement, it is clear that there is no hope, under the present state of international affairs, that so many people would be offered resettlement opportunities in third countries. Secondly, even if it were possible, it would be a bad precedent for the international community. There are many countries in the world where large groups, like the Rohingyas, exist, who are disliked by the majority population and could be targeted for similar expulsion, expecting that they too would be resettled elsewhere. This would do great damage to the hallowed principles of asylum and refugee protection developed over centuries.
Thirdly, even a discussion about third country resettlement of the Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh might unsettle the remaining half a million or so Rohingyas still living in Myanmar and provoke them to join the queue in Bangladesh. The combined pull and push factors will be too much for Bangladesh and the international community to handle. Instead of solving the problem, new problems may arise.
Of course, a few humanitarian cases, such as traumatised victims of serious crimes, others in need of medical attention unavailable in the camps, and those who qualify for family reunification abroad, could be considered for resettlement. This would not act as a pull factor, if done carefully, but would show important international solidarity on the issue.
That leaves us with local integration as a solution. This too is a non-starter for the simple reason that it will be impossible for Bangladesh, itself an overpopulated country, to absorb such a huge population without serious social, economic and political consequences. No government will be able to deal with the situation without peril to its own survival. Of course, a few refugees will always merge in locally, as has happened in the past. But it cannot be the main solution for the majority.
That brings us back to voluntary repatriation as the only viable solution for the vast majority of the Rohingyas in Bangladesh. It is important that all the parties involved with the problem understand and accept the reality. That includes Bangladesh, Myanmar, the other two immediate neighbours, India and China, plus countries with interest in the region like Japan and Russia, Asean countries, the UN and the international community as a whole. All must realise the inherent dangers in letting such a large group of people simmer in hopelessness and despair in the camps.
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The most important point to bear in mind in this regard is that unless serious efforts are made by all concerned parties to pave the way for voluntary repatriation of the Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh to Myanmar, the problem will continue to fester till it explodes, one way or another, in the not-too-distant future. No one should think that it will be resolved over time, believing that people will find their own solutions. That has never happened in large and protracted refugee situations. Peoples’ desire to return to their homeland is the same everywhere. Palestinians have not given up this hope in the last 70 years, nor have the Western Sahrawis in the last 50 years, to name only two groups. Rohingyas too won’t give up.
There must be a clear recognition that for so many refugees with horrific memories of the circumstances that made them flee Myanmar, it will be impossible to accept an uncertain sedentary existence in the camps indefinitely. History tells us that in most situations such as this, people are prone to nurture, most steadfastly, the dream of reclaiming their lost land, stolen history, shattered memories and take back control over their own lives. Such dreams die hard.
The statistics from the Rohingya camps in Bangladesh indicate that 52 percent of the refugee population in the camps are below the age of adulthood. Imagine the situation a few years hence when they grow older and find there is no hope for their future and they see no light at the end of the tunnel. It will be an extremely explosive situation.
History also reveals that most protracted refugee situations attract exploiters. The latter take advantage of the anger and frustrations of the refugees to advance their own goals. Such possibilities have increased manifold because of the fractured international politics of our times. With their help, some refugees can be turned into terrorists, or freedom fighters, depending upon the perception of the observer. But their actions will inevitably involve violence, which will beget more violence and the consequences that follow. It is in not in anyone’s interest to let such a situation develop within the Rohingya refugee camps. It is neither good for the Rohingyas, nor for Myanmar, for Bangladesh, the region, or the international community as a whole.
Even without the help of the exploiters, the dangers of radicalisation and its likely consequences for the entire region cannot be underestimated. There are enough elements in the world to take advantage of the hopelessness and frustrations of the refugees to instil the hope and determination for liberation. Islamist elements in Bangladesh too are likely to join the fray.
There are other scenarios which are no less ominous. Frustrated, angry and despondent refugees may begin to escape from the camps and move illegally to neighbouring countries like India, Nepal and others in the region and beyond. The more desperate ones may once again take to rickety boats to undertake the perilous journey across the sea to Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and farther on, as many of their compatriots did not very long ago. Recurrence of scenes of shipwrecked Rohingya women, men and children trying to stay afloat in deep sea, seeking to be rescued by passing ships, will once again raise international concern for the plight of the refugees and shock the conscience of mankind."
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https://www.thedailystar.net/in-focus/news/rohingya-refugee-crisis-time-bomb-must-be-quickly-defused-avoid-any-future-flare-1781818
