Thoughts on Aerospace Related Industries

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Offline Badshah Mamun

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Thoughts on Aerospace Related Industries
« on: August 24, 2021, 02:50:32 PM »
Thoughts on Aerospace Related Industries


Question:  Why would a big Aerospace Company come?

There is no market. No skilled manpower, political situation uncertain, business is unfriendly.

Not feasible, as Bangladesh is too small. Financially not profitable.  Assembling and making is not the same thing.

Let us wait for the answer to come as we explore some developments and take a few things into consideration.

-Bangladesh is rapidly progressing with 6 plus GDP in the last decades. It has now a median age of 27.6 and around 118 m semi-skilled young computer literate people are coming out in the next decade. (Presentation of BIDA). HRD is now geared up with the education institutes and the pairing up of the industries. The coming up of the Aerospace University is another one who would have EASA recognition. The software business is also growing. BSMRAAU has signed an Agreement with AirBus to develop and ensure quality for EASA certification.

-The preponderance of young people gives us the Demographic Dividend. Japan, China, and Europe are aging. Next 10 years they would be shrinking, not only population wise but also marketwise (naturally). Factories there will need migrant workers and market expansion to places where the economy is growing. Many developed countries would rather keep migrants outside while they take the profit. This could be one scenario. (Canada is welcoming Immigrants like Germany)

-There are around 10 million plus Bangladeshis abroad. Unofficially more. While they live and raise children they are likely to visit their roots. While they travel to and from Bangladesh, many others also would do the same through Bangladesh. Because, we have bigger runways and it will be easier. For example, Nepal, Bhutan, Tripoura and other States of India. Moreover Bangladesh is coming up with a deep sea port and the distance to Chattagram port from Guahati is much shorter than Kolkata.  If India China cooperates, the distance to port from Chendu is shortest if Chittagong or Mongla is used. We have a dozen plus runways of 5000 ft plus, of them, if we renovate a few, we have the possibility of becoming a connectivity hub. Aerospace industries need runways. We have. In short, we can be, as per the guidance of our honorable Prime Minister a Hub of Connectivity for East and West. And we can use the disused runways for growth of aviation related industries/plants/factories.

-Now where is the market? Where is the market in Singapore?
There is 100 Boeing 777 converted to cargo version in ST Corporation. They have the branding and the reputation and the market is the whole world. So, we have to build up the reputation, by own innovation, R&D, ingenuity, and that means leap frogging. We do not have to re-invent the wheel. And we may even tap on our vast experts all over the world. NRB (Non resident Bangladeshis). We can even go in WRAP speed by by-passing some of the wrong stages that the westerners took and brought about the Climate Change. We side step the bad patches and go full speed green. Catch the Band Wagon of 4th Industrial revolution. Means we must be putting forward the appeal of Eco-friendly Industrialization.  And strength is the youngsters coming of age. However, the demographic dividend would be of a small window of 20 to 30 years as we are coming to a halt in our population GROWTH RATE. {2.1%}

-Initial start-up has to be with partnership. It does not come free from nothing. Every asset acquisition and procurement need to be connected with offsets and counterbalance. (Like Indonesia). It could be joint ventures. But the bottom-line is to have deals that bring in the knowhow and the technologies, not by force, but by and because it would be beneficial for those coming. Win win. The companies coming could make products competitive, and by virtue of readily available skilled and semi- skilled workforce generated by the synergistic effect of working together between the Education Institutions and the Industries and now the military. A bigger dimension of PPP. What we should do, we need to project and point out the possibilities. How? by branding, by advertising, by expositions and exhibitions, like AIR SHOW.

-Political stability is a matter of convenience, once economic development becomes the top priority. All concerned would be tolerant, accommodative as necessary due the requirement of nation building. Well that's my belief. Reason all will be the winner, no loser.

-Post COVID World Scenario
US China bashing has increased, spectre of conflict heightened by the Jewish settlement renewals. The India China media debate goes on and increasing dominance of China is prominent in Africa and the rest of the third world. China has developed Aircraft Carrier and exercising its might where needed. Russia adds with the flexing of military might also by steaming trough the English channel. Thus many western investors who went to China, now desires to go somewhere else. Moreover they understand the Chinese market will eventually shrink due to aging population. Laos, Veitnam Cambodia are catching up. Why not us. The world is moving more to e business and BLOCK CHAIN. Negative Interest Rate NIR is setting in. A new world order of economic parity and more humane green regime may be in the offing. We only need to go and venture boldly.

-Points to Ponder on Vision 2041 and Delta Plan

Our HPM's Vision 2041 envisages that we will be a developed country. As we have already attained the criteria to graduate from LDC to middle income developing country status, we feel elated. However our leaning on Agro sector and services sector added with enhanced remittance flow alone will not be sufficient to take us there. We would need Industrialization. (In 2019, the writer was talking to Mahatir Muhammad where he emphasized and said so). Of course it has to be eco-friendly. And what else could be more value added than Aerospace related products and services. Today, a big chunk of the aviation travel market is taken away by outside airlines; our fleet goes abroad to perform routine maintenance. We could with little skill in negotiation get into the business of MRO (maintenance repair organization) in our country. And with the marketing of branded world class aviation companies we should be able to be competitive as well as look after our own requirements which are very less now. To be a Connectivity Hub, we need to expand our Flag Carrier. The input in the national carrier would be a greater output in branding Bangladesh. That Branding will get other products to market. From low end products we need to transit to high end value added products. This is more important as we do not have minerals or oil. Remittance could take us up to a certain point from where we have to step into the world of our own innovations through extensive R&D and building up a society of learned skilled people. The learning and the degree should be merged with the needs of the industries. Synergy should be developed through PPP.

-   Unfortunately we only recently have been able to put up our satellite, though back in 1974 Banghabandhu established Betbunia ground station. SPARSO do not have a space program to help in shaping and modifying our DELTAPLAN. It has to have a space orientation and the outlook need to be in detail as to how we derive maximum benefit from space research and exploration in 2100.

-   Only by imitation and by integrating others product we may not be attaining the lofty goal of 2041, but if we add along, our own innovation and ingenuity and technological developments with inventions getting Patented IPR, we are most likely to reach far better way and be a society knowledge based having empathy, happy and having understanding of people's emotions/pain and above all HUMANE.

Writer:


Air Chief Marshal Masihuzzaman Serniabat, BBP, OSP, ndu, psc
Former Chief of Air Staff, Bangladesh Air Force
« Last Edit: August 24, 2021, 05:49:03 PM by Badshah Mamun »
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