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BBA Discussion Forum / The Key Economic Indicators
« on: October 09, 2011, 02:54:42 PM »
Key statistics that indicate the direction of an economy. They are of three main types: (1) Leading indicators (such as new orders for consumer durables, net business formation, and share prices) that attempt to predict the economy's direction, (2) Coincident indicators (such as gross domestic product, employment levels, retail sales) that show up together with the occurrence of associated economic activity, and (3) Lagging indicators (such as gross national product, consumer price index, interest rates) that become apparent only after the occurrence of associated economic activity.
Leading Indicators
Measurable factors of economic performance that change before (ahead of) the underlying economic cycle starts to follow a particular direction or trend. Since these statistics precede (by one to 12 months) other changes in economic activity, they are used to forecast the forthcoming pattern of the overall economy. Major leading indictors include orders for durable goods, orders for plant and equipment, new housing starts, change in raw material prices, corporate profits and share prices, business formation and failures, and money supply (M2).
Order
1. Commerce: A confirmed request by one party to another to buy, sell, deliver, or receive goods or services under specified terms and conditions. When accepted by the receiving party, an order becomes a legally binding contract.
2. Banking: An instrument (such as a check or draft) through which its maker or issuer (drawer) authorizes a bank or other financial institution to pay the stated sum to a named holder (drawee or payee). Such instruments are transferable by endorsement, and thus are negotiable instruments.
3. Law: An authoritative mandate, command, or direction issued by a court under its seal. A final court order is called judgment.
4. Finance: An investor's instructions to a broker or dealer to buy or sell an item in a specified manner. Such orders are of four major types: (1) Limit order, (2) Market order, (3) Open order, and (4) Stop order.
Consumer Durables
Mass market heavy goods (such as washing machines, refrigerators, furniture) intended to last three or more years. Also called durable goods or hard goods.
Business
An economic system in which goods and services are exchanged for one another or money, on the basis of their perceived worth. Every business requires some form of investment and a sufficient number of customers to whom its output can be sold at profit on a consistent basis.
Fixed Assets (net) to Net Worth Ratio
Measure of the solvency of a firm, this ratio indicates the extent to which the owners' cash is frozen in the form of brick and mortar and machinery, and the extent to which funds are available for the firm's operations. A ratio higher than 0.75 indicates that the firm is vulnerable to unexpected events and changes in the business climate. Formula: Net fixed assets ÷ net worth.
Share Price
The price of one share of stock.
Coincident Indicators
Economic and financial market indicators which tend to move in step with (1) general economic trends such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment levels, retail sales, and/or (2) financial market trends such as interest rates and stockmarket prices. Also called concurrent indicators. See also lagging indicators and leading indicators.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The value of a country's overall output of goods and services (typically during one fiscal year) at market prices, excluding net income from abroad.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be estimated in three ways which, in theory, should yield identical figures. They are (1) Expenditure basis: how much money was spent, (2) Output basis: how many goods and services were sold, and (3) Income basis: how much income (profit) was earned. These estimates, published quarterly, are constantly revised to approach greater accuracy. The most closely watched data is the period to period change in output and consumption, in real (inflation adjusted) terms. If indirect taxes are deducted from the market prices and subsidies are added, it is called GDP at factor cost or national dividend. If depreciation of the national capital stock is deducted from the GDP, it is called net domestic product. If income from abroad is added, it is called gross national product (GNP). The main criticisms of GDP as a realistic guide to a nation's well-being are that (1) it is preoccupied with indiscriminate production and consumption, and (2) it includes the cost of damage caused by pollution as a positive factor in its calculations, while excluding the lost value of depleted natural resources and unpaid costs of environmental harm. Also called gross value added (GVA).
Retail Sales
The official measure of broad consumer spending patterns based on the retail sales of consumer durables (goods that usually last more than three years) and consumer non-durables (that usually last less than three years).
Shareholders usually want to see the retail sales going up (which usually translate into higher corporate earnings). Bondholders favor declining retail sales that signal a slowing economy, lower inflation, and increase in bond prices.
Market Trend
When the trading market responds to the ups and downs of the prices associated with investments and securities. The terminology that applies to a market trend is "bull" or "bear."
Interest Rate
The annualized cost of credit or debt-capital computed as the percentage ratio of interest to the principal.
Each bank can determine its own interest rate on loans but, in practice, local rates are about the same from bank to bank. In general, interest rates rise in times of inflation, greater demand for credit, tight money supply, or due to higher reserve requirements for banks. A rise in interest rates for any reason tends to dampen business activity (because credit becomes more expensive) and the stock market (because investors can get better returns from bank deposits or newly issued bonds than from buying shares).
Price
A value that will purchase a definite quantity, weight, or other measure of a good or service.
As the consideration given in exchange for transfer of ownership, price forms the essential basis of commercial transactions. It may be fixed by a contract, left to be determined by an agreed upon formula at a future date, or discovered or negotiated during the course of dealings between the parties involved. In commerce, price is determined by what (1) a buyer is willing to pay, (2) a seller is willing to accept, and (3) the competition is allowing to be charged. With product, promotion, and place of marketing mix, it is one of the business variables over which organizations can exercise some degree of control. It is a criminal offense to manipulate prices (see price fixing) in collusion with other suppliers, and to give a misleading indication of price such as charging for items that are reasonably expected to be included in the advertised, list, or quoted price.
Lagging Indicators
Economic and financial-market indicators which tend to change only after an economy has already changed, or has begun to follow a particular pattern or trend. They trail behind (usually by six months) the overall economic cycle instead of moving with it (as coincident indicators do) or moving ahead of it (as leading indicators do). Major lagging indicators include the unemployment rate, outstanding consumer loans, outstanding business loans, business spending, business profits, book value of business inventories, unit labor costs, and consumer price index (CPI).
Unemployment Rate
Percentage of total workforce who are unemployed and are looking for a paid job. Unemployment rate is one of the most closely watched statistics because a rising rate is seen as a sign of weakening economy that may call for cut in interest rate. A falling rate, similarly, indicates a growing economy which is usually accompanied by higher inflation rate and may call for increase in interest rates.
Outstanding & Consumer Loan
Payment that has not been received for products or services rendered.
An amount of money lent to an individual (usually on a nonsecured basis) for personal, family, or household purposes. Consumer loans are monitored by government regulatory agencies for their compliance with consumer protection regulations such as the Truth in Lending Act. Also called consumer credit or consumer lending.
Book Value (BV)
1. Capital asset: Written down value of an asset as shown in the firm's balance sheet. BV is computed by deducting accumulated depreciation from the purchase price of the asset. Because, according to the provisions of GAAP, an asset's BV cannot show any increase or decrease in the asset's market value, it rarely reflects the asset's true worth.
2. Common stock: Amount that shareholders would (in theory) receive for each share if the firm's assets were sold (liquidated). Computed by dividing BV of the firm by the number of shares held by the shareholders (outstanding shares).
3. Firm: Net worth of a firm reflected in its balance sheet as owners' (shareholders') equity. It is computed by adding up all (equity and debt) capital invested since the firm's inception and deducting all liabilities. As in the case of the capital assets, the BV of a firm usually bears little or no resemblance to its true or market value.
4. Liability: Full amount (par value) of a liability less sums already paid. Also called basis value or carrying value.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A measure of changes in the purchasing-power of a currency and the rate of inflation. The consumer price index expresses the current prices of a basket of goods and services in terms of the prices during the same period in a previous year, to show effect of inflation on purchasing power. Also called cost of living index (COLI), it is one of the best known lagging indicators. See also producer price index.
Source: http://www.businessdictionary.com
Leading Indicators
Measurable factors of economic performance that change before (ahead of) the underlying economic cycle starts to follow a particular direction or trend. Since these statistics precede (by one to 12 months) other changes in economic activity, they are used to forecast the forthcoming pattern of the overall economy. Major leading indictors include orders for durable goods, orders for plant and equipment, new housing starts, change in raw material prices, corporate profits and share prices, business formation and failures, and money supply (M2).
Order
1. Commerce: A confirmed request by one party to another to buy, sell, deliver, or receive goods or services under specified terms and conditions. When accepted by the receiving party, an order becomes a legally binding contract.
2. Banking: An instrument (such as a check or draft) through which its maker or issuer (drawer) authorizes a bank or other financial institution to pay the stated sum to a named holder (drawee or payee). Such instruments are transferable by endorsement, and thus are negotiable instruments.
3. Law: An authoritative mandate, command, or direction issued by a court under its seal. A final court order is called judgment.
4. Finance: An investor's instructions to a broker or dealer to buy or sell an item in a specified manner. Such orders are of four major types: (1) Limit order, (2) Market order, (3) Open order, and (4) Stop order.
Consumer Durables
Mass market heavy goods (such as washing machines, refrigerators, furniture) intended to last three or more years. Also called durable goods or hard goods.
Business
An economic system in which goods and services are exchanged for one another or money, on the basis of their perceived worth. Every business requires some form of investment and a sufficient number of customers to whom its output can be sold at profit on a consistent basis.
Fixed Assets (net) to Net Worth Ratio
Measure of the solvency of a firm, this ratio indicates the extent to which the owners' cash is frozen in the form of brick and mortar and machinery, and the extent to which funds are available for the firm's operations. A ratio higher than 0.75 indicates that the firm is vulnerable to unexpected events and changes in the business climate. Formula: Net fixed assets ÷ net worth.
Share Price
The price of one share of stock.
Coincident Indicators
Economic and financial market indicators which tend to move in step with (1) general economic trends such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment levels, retail sales, and/or (2) financial market trends such as interest rates and stockmarket prices. Also called concurrent indicators. See also lagging indicators and leading indicators.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The value of a country's overall output of goods and services (typically during one fiscal year) at market prices, excluding net income from abroad.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be estimated in three ways which, in theory, should yield identical figures. They are (1) Expenditure basis: how much money was spent, (2) Output basis: how many goods and services were sold, and (3) Income basis: how much income (profit) was earned. These estimates, published quarterly, are constantly revised to approach greater accuracy. The most closely watched data is the period to period change in output and consumption, in real (inflation adjusted) terms. If indirect taxes are deducted from the market prices and subsidies are added, it is called GDP at factor cost or national dividend. If depreciation of the national capital stock is deducted from the GDP, it is called net domestic product. If income from abroad is added, it is called gross national product (GNP). The main criticisms of GDP as a realistic guide to a nation's well-being are that (1) it is preoccupied with indiscriminate production and consumption, and (2) it includes the cost of damage caused by pollution as a positive factor in its calculations, while excluding the lost value of depleted natural resources and unpaid costs of environmental harm. Also called gross value added (GVA).
Retail Sales
The official measure of broad consumer spending patterns based on the retail sales of consumer durables (goods that usually last more than three years) and consumer non-durables (that usually last less than three years).
Shareholders usually want to see the retail sales going up (which usually translate into higher corporate earnings). Bondholders favor declining retail sales that signal a slowing economy, lower inflation, and increase in bond prices.
Market Trend
When the trading market responds to the ups and downs of the prices associated with investments and securities. The terminology that applies to a market trend is "bull" or "bear."
Interest Rate
The annualized cost of credit or debt-capital computed as the percentage ratio of interest to the principal.
Each bank can determine its own interest rate on loans but, in practice, local rates are about the same from bank to bank. In general, interest rates rise in times of inflation, greater demand for credit, tight money supply, or due to higher reserve requirements for banks. A rise in interest rates for any reason tends to dampen business activity (because credit becomes more expensive) and the stock market (because investors can get better returns from bank deposits or newly issued bonds than from buying shares).
Price
A value that will purchase a definite quantity, weight, or other measure of a good or service.
As the consideration given in exchange for transfer of ownership, price forms the essential basis of commercial transactions. It may be fixed by a contract, left to be determined by an agreed upon formula at a future date, or discovered or negotiated during the course of dealings between the parties involved. In commerce, price is determined by what (1) a buyer is willing to pay, (2) a seller is willing to accept, and (3) the competition is allowing to be charged. With product, promotion, and place of marketing mix, it is one of the business variables over which organizations can exercise some degree of control. It is a criminal offense to manipulate prices (see price fixing) in collusion with other suppliers, and to give a misleading indication of price such as charging for items that are reasonably expected to be included in the advertised, list, or quoted price.
Lagging Indicators
Economic and financial-market indicators which tend to change only after an economy has already changed, or has begun to follow a particular pattern or trend. They trail behind (usually by six months) the overall economic cycle instead of moving with it (as coincident indicators do) or moving ahead of it (as leading indicators do). Major lagging indicators include the unemployment rate, outstanding consumer loans, outstanding business loans, business spending, business profits, book value of business inventories, unit labor costs, and consumer price index (CPI).
Unemployment Rate
Percentage of total workforce who are unemployed and are looking for a paid job. Unemployment rate is one of the most closely watched statistics because a rising rate is seen as a sign of weakening economy that may call for cut in interest rate. A falling rate, similarly, indicates a growing economy which is usually accompanied by higher inflation rate and may call for increase in interest rates.
Outstanding & Consumer Loan
Payment that has not been received for products or services rendered.
An amount of money lent to an individual (usually on a nonsecured basis) for personal, family, or household purposes. Consumer loans are monitored by government regulatory agencies for their compliance with consumer protection regulations such as the Truth in Lending Act. Also called consumer credit or consumer lending.
Book Value (BV)
1. Capital asset: Written down value of an asset as shown in the firm's balance sheet. BV is computed by deducting accumulated depreciation from the purchase price of the asset. Because, according to the provisions of GAAP, an asset's BV cannot show any increase or decrease in the asset's market value, it rarely reflects the asset's true worth.
2. Common stock: Amount that shareholders would (in theory) receive for each share if the firm's assets were sold (liquidated). Computed by dividing BV of the firm by the number of shares held by the shareholders (outstanding shares).
3. Firm: Net worth of a firm reflected in its balance sheet as owners' (shareholders') equity. It is computed by adding up all (equity and debt) capital invested since the firm's inception and deducting all liabilities. As in the case of the capital assets, the BV of a firm usually bears little or no resemblance to its true or market value.
4. Liability: Full amount (par value) of a liability less sums already paid. Also called basis value or carrying value.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A measure of changes in the purchasing-power of a currency and the rate of inflation. The consumer price index expresses the current prices of a basket of goods and services in terms of the prices during the same period in a previous year, to show effect of inflation on purchasing power. Also called cost of living index (COLI), it is one of the best known lagging indicators. See also producer price index.
Source: http://www.businessdictionary.com