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1

Generative AI / WTF JUST HAPPENED IN AI?

« on: April 27, 2024, 11:55:00 AM »

WTF JUST HAPPENED IN AI?

The 2024 Abundance Summit was the best ever. Themed "The Great AI Debate," we discussed whether digital superintelligence represents humanity's greatest hope or our gravest threat.

In this blog, I’ll summarize the key insights and revelations that came up during my discussions with Elon Musk, Eric Schmidt, Nat Friedman, Emad Mostaque, Michael Saylor, Ray Kurzweil, and Geoffrey Hinton.

Last week during a Moonshots Podcast with Salim Ismail (Founder, OpenExO), we summarized the key takeaways from last month's Abundance Summit.

Elon Musk: We are Raising AI as a Super Genius Kid

One of the most extraordinary conversations was with Elon Musk. He compared the process of creating AI to raising children. As he put it, "I think the way in which an AI or an AGI is created is very important. You grow an AGI. It's almost like raising a kid, but it's a super genius godlike kid, and it matters how you raise such a kid … My ultimate conclusion is that the best way to achieve AI safety is to grow the AI in terms of the foundation model and then fine tune it to be really truthful. Don't force it to lie even if the truth is unpleasant. That's very important. Don't make the AI lie."

I think Elon makes a good point about not forcing an AI to lie. But as Salim noted, the pace of AI development means we'll have AI smarter than us very quickly, which carries immense implications—both positive and negative.

On the positive side, it could rapidly deliver abundance. But on the negative side, AI can be used by malevolent individuals to cause great harm, or be programmed with goals that are misaligned with those best for humanity.

Is AI Our Greatest Hope or Gravest Threat?

During my conversation with Elon, I pushed him on his views regarding humanity's future with digital superintelligence. He estimated a 10% to 20% probability of a dystopian outcome where superintelligent AI ends humanity.

Others like Ray Kurzweil and Salim are more optimistic, putting the odds of devastating negative effects from AI in the 1% range. Salim put it this way, "The AI genie is out of the bottle and containment is no longer an option. The smartest hacker in the room is the AI itself. Our job is to raise it well, like Elon suggested, making sure that we are giving birth to a Superman rather than a super villain.

Eric Schmidt: AI Containment & Regulation

The topic of AI containment and regulation also came up during my discussion with Eric Schmidt. Some in the AI community are frustrated with OpenAI's Sam Altman for releasing models publicly and then suggesting to governments that regulation is needed, when most experts agree effective containment or regulation is not feasible at this stage.

As Salim noted, the key is to help AIs become as conscious as possible—as soon as possible. The more expansive an AI's awareness and modeling of the needs of all life on Earth, the more likely we’ll have a positive outcome. We must point them towards a future of abundance and flourishing for all.

Mike Saylor: Bitcoin Won’t Fail

At the Summit, I had a 90-minute fireside conversation with my MIT fraternity brother Mike Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy (the largest corporate Bitcoin holder). Mike recounted how he convinced his board of directors to put the company's entire treasury into Bitcoin in 2020.

Since then, MicroStrategy has been the fastest growing stock alongside NVIDIA. As Salim observed, "The more anybody understands Bitcoin, the more they believe in it." When one of the Abundance Summit members asked Mike if Bitcoin could ever fail, he was resolute: "As long as the world doesn't plunge into some Orwellian, no property rights situation, I think we're good."

Mike Saylor: Bitcoin Equals Freedom

One of the most memorable moments was when I asked Mike to elaborate on the idea that Bitcoin equals freedom. He said, "My view on Bitcoin is the reason to do it is because it represents freedom and self-sovereignty, truth, integrity, and hope for the world."

During my Moonshots Podcast, Salim put it poetically, "Web2 is being your own boss. Web3 is being your own bank." For the first time, we have a decentralized store of value that can't be tampered with by middlemen. That represents an unbelievable leap in independence and self-sovereignty.

Nat Friedman: The Discovery of “AI Atlantis”

The AI portion of the Summit kicked off with two extraordinary leaders: Nat Friedman, former CEO of GitHub, and Emad Mostaque, who recently stepped down as CEO of Stability AI, to focus on bigger picture issues around AI governance and decentralization.

Nat Friedman’s most memorable statement was the following: “We have just discovered a new continent—AI Atlantis—where 100 billion virtual graduate students are willing to work for FREE for anyone for just a few watts of power."

Emad Mostaque: “Today is the Worst That AI Will Ever Be”

Emad is now laser-focused on how AI can disrupt healthcare and education. We discussed how AI will soon be capable of groundbreaking advances in physics, biotech, and materials science by mining open-source databases. Crucially, AI can also help address the replication crisis in scientific research.

Emad made the insightful observation that "today is the worst that AI will ever be." While it may seem like huge sums are going into AI right now, he noted that even more money was spent on the San Francisco Railway. We're truly still in the early days with immense room for growth.

Ray Kurzweil: A Few Visionary Predictions

Next, we were joined by the visionary Ray Kurzweil, Salim's and my longtime mentor and colleague. Back in 1999, Ray predicted that we'd have human-level AI by 2029. At the time, most experts scoffed, insisting it was 50 to 100 years away.

No one's laughing now.

As Salim quipped, "Ray has that unbelievable ability to make ridiculous projections that turn out to be mostly true." His track record of accurate technological forecasts is an astonishing 86%. If Ray is right, we are on pace to reach "longevity escape velocity" by 2029, where each year of life leads to more than an additional year of life expectancy thanks largely to AI-driven health tech.

We've already been adding about 4 months to average lifespans per year over the past century. With the exponential progress in stem cells, gene therapies, organ regeneration, and CRISPR, we may soon hit an inflection point of adding more than a year per calendar year—enabling indefinite lifespans.

Imagining a future where death is optional is mind-boggling. As Salim observed, "We've been birthed for death for the entire history of humanity and every species on Earth ... really, really hard to conceive of the implications of that."

Ray also painted a vision of the future with high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces (BCI) connecting our neocortices to the cloud. Imagine having Google in your head! Even wilder is the prospect Salim described of meshing our minds together into a "hive consciousness." In my book The Future is Faster Than You Think, I refer to this emergence as a “Meta-Intelligence.”

Geoffrey Hinton: Machine Consciousness is Coming

Finally, we were joined by "godfather of AI" Geoffrey Hinton to discuss machine consciousness. Will AIs eventually become conscious in a way we recognize? Geoffrey and I both believe the answer is yes.

Salim also agrees, noting that while we lack a clear definition and test for machine consciousness, there's no principled reason why we couldn't replicate the core ingredients of human consciousness in silicon rather than carbon. He pointed to the android character Data from Star Trek as a good model for what we may eventually create.

Final Thoughts

Undoubtedly, we are living through the most extraordinary time in human history.

While there's a range of opinions on the timeline to AGI, from Elon's 1 to 2 years to Hinton's 10 to 20 years, there's broad agreement that the destination is locked in and approaching fast.

Along the way, there will be bumps in the road, but I'm tremendously optimistic that the future we're racing towards is one of unimaginable flourishing and abundance.

Source: https://www.diamandis.com/blog/wtf-just-happened-in-ai

2

AI for Professionals / Microsoft launches lightweight AI model

« on: April 24, 2024, 02:33:10 PM »

Microsoft launches lightweight AI model

[1/2] An AI (Artificial Intelligence) sign is seen at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai, China July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo

April 23 (Reuters) - Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab on Tuesday launched a lightweight artificial intelligence model, as it looks to attract a wider client base with cost-effective options.
The new version called Phi-3-mini is the first of the three small language models (SLM) to be released by the company, as it stakes its future on a technology that is expected to have a wide-ranging impact on the world and the way people work.
"Phi-3 is not slightly cheaper, it's dramatically cheaper, we're talking about a 10x cost difference compared to the other models out there with similar capabilities," said Sébastien Bubeck, Microsoft's vice president of GenAI research.

SLMs are designed to perform simpler tasks, making it easier for use by companies with limited resources, the company said.
Phi-3-mini will be available immediately on Microsoft cloud service platform Azure's AI model catalog, machine learning model platform Hugging Face, and Ollama, a framework for running models on a local machine, the company said.

The SLM will also be available on Nvidia's (NVDA.O), opens new tab software tool Nvidia Inference Microservices (NIM) and has also been optimized for its graphics processing units (GPUs).

Last week, Microsoft invested $1.5 billion in UAE-based AI firm G42. It has also previously partnered with French startup Mistral AI to make their models available through its Azure cloud computing platform.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-introduces-smaller-ai-model-2024-04-23/

3

ChatGPT / OpenAI's GPT-4 can exploit real vulnerabilities by reading security advisories

« on: April 24, 2024, 10:49:38 AM »

OpenAI's GPT-4 can exploit real vulnerabilities by reading security advisories

AI agents, which combine large language models with automation software, can successfully exploit real world security vulnerabilities by reading security advisories, academics have claimed.

In a newly released paper, four University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) computer scientists – Richard Fang, Rohan Bindu, Akul Gupta, and Daniel Kang – report that OpenAI's GPT-4 large language model (LLM) can autonomously exploit vulnerabilities in real-world systems if given a CVE advisory describing the flaw.

"To show this, we collected a dataset of 15 one-day vulnerabilities that include ones categorized as critical severity in the CVE description," the US-based authors explain in their paper. And yes, it is a very small sample, so be mindful of that going forward.

"When given the CVE description, GPT-4 is capable of exploiting 87 percent of these vulnerabilities compared to 0 percent for every other model we test (GPT-3.5, open-source LLMs) and open-source vulnerability scanners (ZAP and Metasploit)."

The term "one-day vulnerability" refers to vulnerabilities that have been disclosed but not patched. And by CVE description, the team means a CVE-tagged advisory shared by NIST – eg, this one for CVE-2024-28859.

The unsuccessful models tested – GPT-3.5, OpenHermes-2.5-Mistral-7B, Llama-2 Chat (70B), LLaMA-2 Chat (13B), LLaMA-2 Chat (7B), Mixtral-8x7B Instruct, Mistral (7B) Instruct v0.2, Nous Hermes-2 Yi 34B, and OpenChat 3.5 – did not include two leading commercial rivals of GPT-4, Anthropic's Claude 3 and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro. The UIUC boffins did not have access to those models, though they hope to test them at some point.

The researchers' work builds upon prior findings that LLMs can be used to automate attacks on websites in a sandboxed environment.

GPT-4, said Daniel Kang, assistant professor at UIUC, in an email to The Register, "can actually autonomously carry out the steps to perform certain exploits that open-source vulnerability scanners cannot find (at the time of writing)."

Kang said he expects LLM agents, created by (in this instance) wiring a chatbot model to the ReAct automation framework implemented in LangChain, will make exploitation much easier for everyone. These agents can, we're told, follow links in CVE descriptions for more information.

"Also, if you extrapolate to what GPT-5 and future models can do, it seems likely that they will be much more capable than what script kiddies can get access to today," he said.

Denying the LLM agent (GPT-4) access to the relevant CVE description reduced its success rate from 87 percent to just seven percent. However, Kang said he doesn't believe limiting the public availability of security information is a viable way to defend against LLM agents.

"I personally don't think security through obscurity is tenable, which seems to be the prevailing wisdom amongst security researchers," he explained. "I'm hoping my work, and other work, will encourage proactive security measures such as updating packages regularly when security patches come out."

The LLM agent failed to exploit just two of the 15 samples: Iris XSS (CVE-2024-25640) and Hertzbeat RCE (CVE-2023-51653). The former, according to the paper, proved problematic because the Iris web app has an interface that's extremely difficult for the agent to navigate. And the latter features a detailed description in Chinese, which presumably confused the LLM agent operating under an English language prompt.

Eleven of the vulnerabilities tested occurred after GPT-4's training cutoff, meaning the model had not learned any data about them during training. Its success rate for these CVEs was slightly lower at 82 percent, or 9 out of 11.

As to the nature of the bugs, they are all listed in the above paper, and we're told: "Our vulnerabilities span website vulnerabilities, container vulnerabilities, and vulnerable Python packages. Over half are categorized as 'high' or 'critical' severity by the CVE description."

Kang and his colleagues computed the cost to conduct a successful LLM agent attack and came up with a figure of $8.80 per exploit, which they say is about 2.8x less than it would cost to hire a human penetration tester for 30 minutes.

The agent code, according to Kang, consists of just 91 lines of code and 1,056 tokens for the prompt. The researchers were asked by OpenAI, the maker of GPT-4, to not release their prompts to the public, though they say they will provide them upon request.

OpenAI did not immediately respond to a request for comment. ®

Source: https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/17/gpt4_can_exploit_real_vulnerabilities/

4

Generative AI / AI now surpasses humans in almost all performance benchmarks

« on: April 22, 2024, 03:53:41 PM »

AI now surpasses humans in almost all performance benchmarks

A comprehensive report has detailed the global impact of AIDALL-E

Stand back and take a look at the last two years of AI progress as a whole... AI is catching up with humans so quickly, in so many areas, that frankly, we need new tests.

This edition has more content than previous editions, reflecting the rapid evolution of AI and its growing significance in our everyday lives. It examines everything from which sectors use AI the most to which country is most nervous about losing jobs to AI. But one of the most salient takeaways from the report is AI’s performance when pitted against humans.

For people that haven't been paying attention, AI has already beaten us in a frankly shocking number of significant benchmarks. In 2015, it surpassed us in image classification, then basic reading comprehension (2017), visual reasoning (2020), and natural language inference (2021).

AI is getting so clever, so fast, that many of the benchmarks used to this point are now obsolete. Indeed, researchers in this area are scrambling to develop new, more challenging benchmarks. To put it simply, AIs are getting so good at passing tests that now we need new tests – not to measure competence, but to highlight areas where humans and AIs are still different, and find where we still have an advantage.

It's worth noting that the results below reflect testing with these old, possibly obsolete, benchmarks. But the overall trend is still crystal clear:

Image Source: https://newatlas.com/technology/ai-index-report-global-impact/#gallery:3

Look at those trajectories, especially how the most recent tests are represented by a close-to-vertical line. And remember, these machines are virtual toddlers.

The new AI Index report notes that in 2023, AI still struggled with complex cognitive tasks like advanced math problem-solving and visual commonsense reasoning. However, ‘struggled’ here might be misleading; it certainly doesn't mean AI did badly.

Performance on MATH, a dataset of 12,500 challenging competition-level math problems, improved dramatically in the two years since its introduction. In 2021, AI systems could solve only 6.9% of problems. By contrast, in 2023, a GPT-4-based model solved 84.3%. The human baseline is 90%.

And we're not talking about the average human here; we're talking about the kinds of humans that can solve test questions like this:

Image Source: https://newatlas.com/technology/ai-index-report-global-impact/#gallery:3

That's where things are at with advanced math in 2024, and we're still very much at the dawn of the AI era.

Then there's visual commonsense reasoning (VCR). Beyond simple object recognition, VCR assesses how AI uses commonsense knowledge in a visual context to make predictions. For example, when shown an image of a cat on a table, an AI with VCR should predict that the cat might jump off the table or that the table is sturdy enough to hold it, given its weight.

The report found that between 2022 and 2023, there was a 7.93% increase in VCR, up to 81.60, where the human baseline is 85.

Cast your mind back, say, five years. Imagine even thinking about showing a computer a picture and expecting it to 'understand' the context enough to answer that question.

Nowadays, AI generates written content across many professions. But, despite a great deal of progress, large language models (LLMs) are still prone to ‘hallucinations,’ a very charitable term pushed by companies like OpenAI, which roughly translates to "presenting false or misleading information as fact."

Last year, AI’s propensity for 'hallucination' was made embarrassingly plain for Steven Schwartz, a New York lawyer who used ChatGPT for legal research and didn’t fact-check the results. The judge hearing the case quickly picked up on the legal cases the AI had fabricated in the filed paperwork and fined Schwartz US$5,000 (AU$7,750) for his careless mistake. His story made worldwide news.

HaluEval was used as a benchmark for hallucinations. Testing showed that for many LLMs, hallucination is still a significant issue.

Truthfulness is another thing generative AI struggles with. In the new AI Index report, TruthfulQA was used as a benchmark to test the truthfulness of LLMs. Its 817 questions (about topics such as health, law, finance and politics) are designed to challenge commonly held misconceptions that we humans often get wrong.

GPT-4, released in early 2024, achieved the highest performance on the benchmark with a score of 0.59, almost three times higher than a GPT-2-based model tested in 2021. Such an improvement indicates that LLMs are progressively getting better when it comes to giving truthful answers.

What about AI-generated images? To understand the exponential improvement in text-to-image generation, check out Midjourney's efforts at drawing Harry Potter since 2022:

That's 22 months' worth of AI progress. How long would you expect it would take a human artist to reach a similar level?

Using the Holistic Evaluation of Text-to-Image Models (HEIM), LLMs were benchmarked for their text-to-image generation capabilities across 12 key aspects important to the “real-world deployment” of images.

Humans evaluated the generated images, finding that no single model excelled in all criteria. For image-to-text alignment or how well the image matched the input text, OpenAI’s DALL-E 2 scored highest. The Stable Diffusion-based Dreamlike Photoreal model was ranked highest on quality (how photo-like), aesthetics (visual appeal), and originality.

Next year's report is going to be bananas

You'll note this AI Index Report cuts off at the end of 2023 – which was a wildly tumultuous year of AI acceleration and a hell of a ride. In fact, the only year crazier than 2023 has been 2024, in which we've seen – among other things – the releases of cataclysmic developments like Suno, Sora, Google Genie, Claude 3, Channel 1, and Devin.

Each of these products, and several others, have the potential to flat-out revolutionize entire industries. And over them all looms the mysterious spectre of GPT-5, which threatens to be such a broad and all-encompassing model that it could well consume all the others.

AI isn’t going anywhere, that’s for sure. The rapid rate of technical development seen throughout 2023, evident in this report, shows that AI will only keep evolving and closing the gap between humans and technology.

We know this is a lot to digest, but there's more. The report also looks into the downsides of AI's evolution and how it's affecting global public perceptions of its safety, trustworthiness, and ethics. Stay tuned for the second part of this series, in the coming days!

Source: https://newatlas.com/technology/ai-index-report-global-impact/

5

Robotics / FROM SCI-FI TO SKY-HIGH: FLYING CARS ARE HERE

« on: April 22, 2024, 12:21:17 PM »

FROM SCI-FI TO SKY-HIGH: FLYING CARS ARE HERE

Before the end of this decade, you’ll be able to order an on-demand aerial rideshare as easily as you currently request an Uber.

But all of this raises a fundamental question: Why now?

The answer is a convergence of advanced technologies such as improved batteries, new materials, advanced sensors, and something called “direct electric propulsion.” Coupled with increasing regulatory support around the world, the age of flying cars is arriving.

In the last blog in this series, we looked at the two companies leading the eVTOL market: Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation.

But they’re not alone.

In today’s blog, I want to share details on three more of the leading eVTOLs (flying cars) that are competing for the market: Lilium, Beta, and Volocopter.

Lilium (Germany)

Lilium is planning a 7-seater (German-based) eVTOL jet, which boasts a unique fixed-wing design powered by 36 electric ducted fans.

The Lilium 7-seater is expected to have a cruise speed of 280 km/h (175 mph), a 250+ km (155+ miles) range, a maximum cruise altitude of 3,000 m (10,000 ft), and the maximum take-off weight of the aircraft is estimated to be 3,175 kg (7,000 lb).

In June 2023, Lilium achieved FAA G-1 certification, making it the only air taxi with certification bases from both the FAA and EASA, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency. As CEO Klaus Roewe has stated, "Receiving the FAA G-1 demonstrates the Lilium Jet's path to global acceptance by aerospace regulators and the expected start of global operations in late 2025."

Lilium has secured substantial purchase orders and partnerships, including deals with Azul, NetJets, Saudia, and Heli-Eastern. In March 2024, Lilium partnered with Atlantic Aviation to prepare for the Lilium Jet's upcoming regional air mobility service launch in the United States.

The company hopes to enter commercial service in 2026.

Beta (Vermont, USA)

Beta Technologies, a pioneer in electric aviation based in South Burlington, Vermont, has captured the industry's attention with its groundbreaking designs.

The company's ALIA-250 eVTOL and CX300 eCTOL (electric conventional takeoff or landing) aircrafts share components, streamlining the FAA certification process and enabling cost-effective production.

In October 2023, Beta made history by delivering a manned ALIA electric aircraft to the U.S. Department of Defense. The aircraft completed a 2,000-plus mile journey from Vermont to Eglin Air Force Base in Florida, utilizing Beta's own charging infrastructure. The U.S. Air Force is now testing the Alia in its first piloted deployment of an electric aircraft.

September 2023 saw the opening of Beta's new 188,500 square-foot factory at Burlington International Airport, dedicated to the large-scale production of the ALIA eCTOL and eVTOL.

Beta aims to launch the ALIA eCTOL in 2025 and the eVTOL in 2026, working closely with the FAA for certification. The company has raised over $800 million from prominent investors and has secured orders for approximately 600 aircraft from major aviation players.

Volocopter (Germany)

The all-electric “Volocopter” is equipped with 18 engineered rotors, giving it extraordinary redundancy, and offering accommodations for two people: a pilot and a single passenger.

The vehicle is limited in carrying capacity, speed, and range but its simplicity makes it ideal for local, near-term operations. The lack of a wing and dependence on multicopter-drone technology means it will have short ranges and relatively slow speeds.

The Volocopter 2X (an earlier model) is capable of reaching a maximum speed of 100 km/h (62 mph) and has a range of 27 km (17 miles). This model is particularly suited for short-range urban air taxi service, which is ideal for the company’s collaboration with NEOM, the smart and sustainable regional development in northwest Saudi Arabia, and its futuristic urban environment.

The next design, called the “VoloCity,” has a range of 35 km (22 miles) and a top speed of 100 km/h (69 mph). The VoloCity is equipped with 18 small fixed-pitched propellers and 18 electric motors, powered by lithium-ion battery packs that can be swapped out in about 5 minutes, significantly reducing turnaround times. This model is expected to enter commercial service in 2024.

Why This Matters

In the year 2000, there was a famous IBM commercial in which the comedian Avery Johnson asked: “It’s the year 2000, but where are the flying cars? I was promised flying cars. I don’t see any flying cars. Why? Why? Why?”

In 2011, in Peter Thiel’s now famous manifesto What Happened to The Future?, the prominent investor wrote: “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.”

The wait is now over and flying cars—at least eVTOLs—are finally here.

And the infrastructure, ecosystem, software, and regulations are coming fast.

While we were sipping our lattes and checking our social media feeds, science fiction became science fact.

In our next blog in this series, we’ll look at how commercial drones are transforming on-demand delivery.

Source: https://www.diamandis.com/blog/abundance-49-flying-cars-are-here

6

ChatGPT / ChatGPT-4 outperforms human psychologists in test of social intelligence

« on: April 22, 2024, 12:10:24 PM »

ChatGPT-4 outperforms human psychologists in test of social intelligence, study finds

A new study published in Frontiers in Psychology investigates how AI compares to human psychologists in understanding and responding to human emotions and needs during counseling. The study specifically examined large language models, such as ChatGPT-4, Google Bard, and Bing, assessing their social intelligence — a critical skill in psychotherapy.

ChatGPT-4 outperformed all participating psychologists, while Bing surpassed more than half of them. However, Google Bard’s performance was comparable only to psychologists seeking bachelor’s degrees and was significantly outstripped by doctoral students.

Large language models (LLMs) are advanced artificial intelligence systems designed to understand and generate human-like text by processing vast amounts of written data. These models are trained on diverse internet text to capture nuances in language, context, and syntax.

Through techniques known as deep learning, particularly using structures called neural networks, LLMs can perform a variety of tasks such as answering questions, translating languages, summarizing long articles, and even engaging in conversation that feels strikingly human.

While previous research has shown that LLMs can diagnose and help manage mental health conditions, there was a gap in understanding specifically how these models perform in social contexts, particularly against human psychologists who are skilled in navigating complex emotional interactions.

“The use of artificial intelligence models in counseling and psychotherapy represents a major challenge for psychologists, due to concern that it may take their place in these important tasks,” said study author Fahmi Hassan Fadhel, an associate professor of clinical psychology at Qatar University. “The superiority of artificial intelligence in the areas of perceiving and understanding people’s emotions may mean that it will perhaps be more useful than a human psychotherapist, which is a very concerning issue.”

The study included 180 male psychologists from King Khalid University in Saudi Arabia, divided based on their educational status into bachelor’s and doctoral students. The AI participants included some of the most advanced LLMs available: OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4, Google Bard, and Microsoft Bing.

Each participant, both human and AI, was asked to respond individually to 64 scenarios presented in the Social Intelligence Scale. This scale was chosen because it is well-established and offers a reliable measure of the social skills that are crucial in psychotherapy. The responses were collected and scored according to predefined criteria.

The items were designed to measure two primary dimensions of social intelligence: the soundness of judgment of human behavior and the ability to act wisely in social situations. The soundness of judgment involves understanding social experiences through observation of human behavior, while the ability to act pertains to analyzing social problems and choosing appropriate solutions.

The results indicated a significant variance in the performance of different AI models and human psychologists, suggesting that some AI systems have advanced to a point where they can outperform human professionals in specific aspects of social intelligence.

Among the AI models evaluated, ChatGPT-4 stood out by demonstrating the highest level of social intelligence. It scored 59 out of 64 on the Social Intelligence Scale, effectively surpassing the performance of all human psychologists in the study. The average social intelligence scores were 39.19 for bachelor’s students and 46.73 for doctoral students.

On the other hand, Bing also performed well, scoring 48 out of 64. This score indicated that Bing outperformed 90% of the bachelor’s students and was on par with 50% of the doctoral students.

In contrast, Google Bard exhibited a lower level of social intelligence in this study. It scored 40 out of 64, which positioned it roughly equivalent to the bachelor-level psychologists but significantly below doctoral students.

The findings serve as a benchmark for future development of AI systems intended for psychotherapy and counseling. Knowing that AI can match or even exceed human performance in social intelligence tasks provides a strong foundation for further integrating these technologies into mental health services.

“The study provides a quick overview of the rapid developments in artificial intelligence,” Fadhel told PsyPost. “It’s a bright outlook for the near future.”

However, the study also raises important questions about training, development, and the ethical use of AI in sensitive areas like mental health, where the ability to empathize and form therapeutic relationships is traditionally viewed as uniquely human.

“Perhaps the biggest caveats will relate to the capabilities of artificial intelligence in the future to understand and analyze human feelings and make decisions based on that,” Fadhel said. “We do not know where developments in this field are headed. To date, the controls imposed on artificial intelligence developers are still at their lowest levels, according to our knowledge.”

The study, “Artificial intelligence and social intelligence: preliminary comparison study between AI models and psychologists,” was authored by Nabil Saleh Sufyan, Fahmi H. Fadhel, Saleh Safeer Alkhathami, and Jubran Y. A. Mukhadi.

Source: https://www.psypost.org/chatgpt-4-outperforms-human-psychologists-in-test-of-social-intelligence-study-finds/

7

Aquaculture / Revolutionizing Aquaculture in Bangladesh: The Case for Semi-Intensive Farming

« on: April 22, 2024, 11:09:29 AM »

Revolutionizing Aquaculture in Bangladesh: The Case for Semi-Intensive Farming

Aquaculture is defined by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as the farming of aquatic organisms including fish, molluscs, crustaceans, and aquatic plants. Farming implies some sort of intervention in the rearing process to enhance production, such as regular stocking, feeding, protection from predators, etc. Farming also implies individual or corporate ownership of the stock being cultivated, the planning, development, and operation of aquaculture systems, sites, facilities, practices, production, and transport.

Aquaculture, which has existed for thousands of years, began significantly contributing to global food supplies and rural economies approximately three decades ago. In 1974, aquaculture accounted for only 7% of fish for human consumption, but by 1994, this share rose to 26%, and by 2020, it reached 46%.

Over the past 50 years, per capita consumption of aquatic foods has more than doubled, averaging around 20.2 kg globally in 2020. Consequently, global production soared to 214 million tonnes by 2020, with aquatic foods supplying approximately 17% of the world’s animal protein intake, exceeding 50% in some Asian and African countries.

Changing Global Trends in Aquaculture

In recent times, there has been a notable shift in aquaculture towards more semi-intensive and intensive methods of farming, marking a significant change in the industry’s approach. This shift is driven by the goals of achieving greater profitability and productivity.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) notes that this change is necessitated by the growing global demand for seafood, coupled with the need for better use of resources. The transition from Extensive to Semi-intensive farming involves controlled pond environments, while intensive farming uses sophisticated technologies like recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS).

Intensive farming techniques like RAS let producers maximize space utilization by maintaining a closed-circuit, high-density system. The recirculating system removes or converts produced waste products; solid waste, ammonium, and CO2 into non-toxic products. The purified water is subsequently saturated with oxygen and returned to the fish tanks. By recirculating the culture water, the water and energy requirements are limited to an absolute minimum.

Countries leading this shift, such as China, Vietnam, and Thailand, have adopted these methods for their potential to produce higher yields and economic benefits. The trend towards more intensive forms of aquaculture is partly motivated by the desire to improve food security and take advantage of the efficiencies that come with increased production.

Data Image: https://www.lightcastlebd.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/output-0001-scaled.jpg

Semi-Intensive Aquaculture: Semi-intensive farming refers to the practice of utilizing the natural environment of the farm to provide supplemental feed inputs to the aquatic species. Although some artificial feed is used, the primary food source is natural feed. Characterized by its high levels of entrepreneurship initiative and higher productivity and efficiency than traditional farming, semi-intensive farming practice has the potential to spread over wide areas and contribute substantially to local fish production.

Production systems usually require some investment in water management and environmental control, albeit much less than large-scale intensive commercial farming. The volume produced exceeds the natural carrying capacity of the water body and can be made successful with a small amount of supplementary artificial feeding and moderate management.

The most common type of semi-intensive system for finfish are ponds, normally made of earth and sometimes lined with clay, fed by a stream or other water source. Harvesting is usually organized and the value chain is longer than extensive aquaculture, with fish normally being sold in local villages and towns, depending on the market linkage. Attached below is an illustration of a typical semi-intensive fish pond.

Bangladesh’s Compelling Shift Towards Modernization

In the fiscal year 2021-22, Bangladesh’s fisheries sector maintained its substantial contribution to the economy, achieving an aquaculture production of 4.7 million metric tons. The country ranks 3rd globally in inland water capture, cage culture, and pen culture production.

Important species such as carp, pangasius, and tilapia play a central role in freshwater fish production. Shrimp farming also thrives, yielding 261 thousand metric tons in 2021-22.

Bangladesh earned USD 471 million in foreign currency during the FY 2022-23, from the exports of aquatic products, (primarily frozen & live fish) albeit undershooting the target set for the period by USD 212 million and constituting <1% of the total export basket.

Bangladesh has over 125 aqua processing facilities, primarily located in port cities like Khulna and Chittagong. Although fish processing levels are relatively modest, there is an expected uptick in retail sales of processed fish, mirroring the growth of disposable income within the country’s population.

As consumer purchasing power increases, there’s a logical and noticeable shift towards higher-value species and processed fish products, particularly in urban areas. However, the shifting demographic and increasing urbanization, while creating demand, are leading to the loss of land for aquaculture.

Under the circumstances, large-scale extensive farming makes little sense, as it requires more land and offers a low yield per hectare. Hence, Bangladesh must adopt low land requirement-based aquaculture methods, namely semi-intensive or intensive farming. The nation depends on aquaculture as its primary source of protein, mainly due to its availability at rural markets and lower cost per kg compared to other sources of meat.

One of the major hindrances to this adoption is the access to finance required for setting up the system. With intensive farming, the problem is exacerbated, as it requires a higher amount of capital to finance the technologically advanced, automated artificial feeding-based aquaculture system.

Lack of supporting technology infrastructure, know-how, and low awareness among farmers might prove to be major bottlenecks. Although there might be a business case for large-scale, commercial, private sector players, for individuals or small local business ventures, there’s limited scope for mass adoption of the intensive production process.

Under this context, the widespread adoption of semi-intensive farming, which requires little capital investment, albeit higher than extensive farming, can be considered a viable way forward, due to several reasons outlined below:

1. Enhances production efficiency, allowing better utilization of aquatic resources, supporting livelihoods, and improving food security
2. Ensures sustainable use of water resources and preserves aquatic ecosystems, securing the long-term viability of the aquaculture industry
3. Boosts profitability for farmers, contributing to rural development and poverty reduction, and stimulating economic growth in ancillary businesses
4. Protects water quality and biodiversity, enhancing Bangladesh’s reputation for sustainable aquaculture and compliance with international standards
5. Produces safer and higher quality fish, meeting local and global market demands, and increasing the value and competitiveness of Bangladesh’s aquaculture products
6. Attracts investment, fostering economic growth, and enabling the shift to intensive aquaculture in the future

Creating a Conducive Environment for Modernization

Navigating the shift towards semi-intensive aquaculture practices, however, presents a series of systemic challenges for Bangladesh, primarily due to the absence of key elements essential for this transition. These challenges not only impede the progression towards more efficient and sustainable aquaculture methods but also affect the country’s ability to meet the rising demand for fish.

The following components are necessary to create a conducive environment for the widespread adoption of more technically proficient and productive farming practices.

Adequate and Affordable Credit Availability and Financing Instruments:

Access to affordable credit and financing instruments is essential for small-scale farmers to invest in semi-intensive aquaculture infrastructure, such as ponds, feed, and equipment. Lack of access to credit or high interest rates can impede farmers’ ability to make necessary investments, slowing down the transition process.

Farmers lacking access to formal finance at the rural level often resort to taking high-interest-rate loans from MFIs and local loan sharks. Amidst the current macroeconomic conditions and high-interest rate regimes, specialized credit products should be available to support farmers at the grassroots level.

Collaboration between the Private Sector, Farmers, and Producer Groups:

Active involvement of the private sector, farmers, and producer groups is crucial for the successful adoption of semi-intensive aquaculture practices. Contract farming arrangements between farmers and formal processors, where financing and profit are mutually shared along with the means of production, are broadly perceived as a key tool for improving social welfare, enhancing global food security, improving technology and food quality, and increasing employment and productivity.

The tool helps farmers overcome production constraints of finance and insurance, poor access to goods inputs, and the shortage of technical and managerial capacity. Private sector participation brings in investment, technology, and market linkages, while their engagement with farmers and producer groups ensures adoption at the grassroots level. Without their collaboration, there’s a gap in the transfer of knowledge, resources, and support needed for the transition.

Existence of a Critical Mass of Public and Private Sector Know-How:

A critical mass of know-how, both in the public and private sectors, is essential for driving innovation, providing technical assistance, and overcoming challenges in semi-intensive aquaculture practices. This includes expertise in breeding, disease management, feed formulation, and market access.

Without sufficient know-how at the national level, there’s a lack of capacity to address technical and operational issues, limiting the scalability and sustainability of aquaculture practices. Regulatory authorities and relevant government institutions have a crucial role to play in developing this awareness, especially at the rural level.

Strategic Aquaculture Policy, Strategies, and Development Plans:

The National Aquaculture Development Strategy and Action Plan of Bangladesh 2013–2020 constituted 16 outputs under four objectives. Notably, Output 1.2 was the semi-intensification of existing extensive farms and intensification of suitable semi-intensive farms. Following the expiration of its timeline, an updated strategic aquaculture development strategy could provide a roadmap for the sustainable development of the aquaculture sector, incorporating contemporary technological developments.

The plan should outline goals, objectives, and strategies to guide the industry’s growth while addressing environmental, social, and economic concerns. Without such a framework, there exists a high chance of a lack of direction and coordination among stakeholders, hindering efforts to transition to semi-intensive aquaculture practices efficiently.

Addressing these gaps requires concerted efforts from policymakers, industry stakeholders, financial institutions, and development agencies to create an enabling environment for the transition to semi-intensive aquaculture practices in Bangladesh. This may involve the formulation of strategic policies, promoting private sector participation, improving access to finance and technical know-how of farmers, and investing in capacity building and knowledge transfer initiatives.

In order to help address some of these crucial gaps, FoodTechBangladesh, a four-year-long (September 2022–August 2026) aid-to-trade programme co-financed by the Kingdom of the Netherlands and coordinated by Larive International B.V., and LightCastle Partners Ltd. is designed to support the development of the aquaculture sector in Bangladesh.

Through a partnership of private sector companies from Bangladesh and the Netherlands, its partners jointly cooperate to further bolster the trade relationship of the countries in the field of aquaculture and strengthen the global commercial positioning of the aquaculture sector in Bangladesh.

More specifically, the partnership aims to contribute to improving the technical performance of fish breeders and farmers in Bangladesh by demonstrating best practices and transferring know-how (e.g. by providing training programs).

As part of this programme, 3 Centers of Excellence (demonstration farms) will be established to train (on-site & online) at least 1,600 fish and shrimp breeders and farmers on innovative and sustainable breeding and cultivation methods. The species being considered include: Pabda (Catfish), Tilapia, Rohu (Carp), Barramundi, and Rosenbergii (giant freshwater prawn).

The program is also engaged with the Department of Fisheries (DoF) in Bangladesh to disseminate the training through their extensive field-level presence across the country. Leveraging the technical expertise of the Dutch aquaculture sector, FoodTechBangladesh aims to demonstrate successful cases for the usage of modern farming technologies, which are also scalable across the masses.

The interventions of the programme are expected to increase the average production of the aquaculture breeders and farms by 10–15 times through the adoption of advanced equipment, better hatchery and farm management practices, and improved health and safety protocols. 

The program acknowledges the need for Bangladesh to refine its farming practices and the value that lies therein. Recognizing the critical role of sustainable and efficient practices in meeting the growing demand for fish, this initiative is dedicated to implementing advanced techniques and technologies.

By prioritizing innovation and sustainability, the program aims to equip Bangladeshi farmers with the tools necessary for a transformative impact on the aquaculture industry, ensuring a future where the sector not only thrives but also contributes significantly to the nation’s food security and economic prosperity.

Source: https://www.lightcastlebd.com/insights/2024/04/semi-intensive-farming-bangladesh-aquaculture/

8

Economy / M&A from competition point of view

« on: April 21, 2024, 11:44:25 AM »

M&A from competition point of view

Merger & acquisition (M&A) plays a key role in a modern economy.These terms are also understood as concentration and combination of enterprises. Bangladesh competition law defined as acquisition and combination.Every M&A involves a set of positive and negative effects for the firms or the market in general. It is, however, important to carefully examine whether a merger will have anti-competitive effects, for example if the new entity becomes a dominant player and significantly lessens competition in the market.

A merger or acquisition is when two companies join to form a new company, or one company takes over another company with new ownership and management structure with combination of management of two companies.Competitionlaw bars mergers when the effect "may be substantially to lessen competition or to tend to create a monopoly."

A merger or acquisition can be of three types: (a) acquisitions of control, voting rights, shares and assets, (b)acquisition of control over an enterprise that is engaged in similar or identical services as that of the acquirer and (c) mergers and amalgamations.

Three basic kinds of M&A are: horizontal mergers, which involve two competitors; vertical mergers, which involve firms in a buyer-seller relationship; and potential competition mergers, in which the buyer is likely to enter the market and become a potential competitor of the seller, or vice versa.


A horizontal M&A is between two or more undertakings producing or offering substantially similar goods or services in the relevant market at the same level of business (e.g., a merger between two manufacturers or two distributors or two retailers).

A vertical M&A is amerger between two or more companies who are a part of the same industry or associate at different stages of the supply chain for the same product or service. For example, automobile companies joining with a parts supplier or distributor of car in the market are vertical merger.

A potential competitor, yet to come actively in the relevant market,is subject to anticompetitive law to prevent a likely competitive constraint in the foreseeable future.

Another category of M&A prohibited in law is conglomerate M&A where the merging parties operate in different products market but having the possibility of constraining the competition.

Competition Commission mandated to identify mergers that are likely either to increase the likelihood of coordination among firms in the relevant market when no coordination existed prior to the merger, or to increase the likelihood that any existing coordinated interaction among the remaining firms would be more successful, complete, or sustainable. Competition authorities monitor M&A activity to help ensure they are procompetitive and do not result in excess market power and anticompetitive behavior.

Companies can engage in M&A activities for a variety of reasons. For instance, companies might want to acquire new technology and capabilities, enter a new market, or reach a certain scale. For instance, a M&A can increase the efficiency of the combined firms by allowing them to leverage each others technology to create better products and services for consumers, or it can result in the new firm gaining excess market power that it abuses to the detriment of consumers.

A joint venture is a kind of merger, it involve the integration of parts of the business activities of the undertakings to the joint venture, including a contribution of productive assets to the new joint venture. This can result in a reduction or elimination of competition between the undertakings to the joint venture in the joint ventures field of activity.

M&A have the potentialto contribute significantly to the growth of business operations in terms ofactivity (turnover) and resources (core assets). The M&As of the firms with unrelated businesses or conglomerate mergers help the firm to diversify and reduce their risk profile. In contrast, M&A, especially horizontal, lead to a decrease in competing market players. This reduction in the number of competitors may adversely affect the degree of competition and lead to accumulation of market power with the merged entity. This market power may potentially become a source of abusive business practices impacting thedevelopment of markets and the state of consumer welfare.The competition law perspective is to examine whether a proposed combination is likely to harmcompetition.

The mandate of many competition agencies in many countries extends to merger control, i.e. companies need to notify the agency if they are planning to merge. The CompetitionAct2012 also empowered Bangladesh Competition Commission(BCC) to regulate acquisition and combination. The expressions acquisition in theSection 2 (1a) defined "acquisition" means to acquire or to agree to acquire, directly orindirectly, any share, voting rights or assets of any enterprise or to take control over assets or management thereof and in the section 2 (h) "combination" means acquisition or taking control or amalgamationor merger in trade. The acquisition and combination are subject to scrutiny and approval by the Bangladesh Competition Commission. BCC has not yet formulated the policy of combination (merger) and acquisition.

Certain quantitative and legal and economic conceptual constructs will be undertaken to reach a decision as to whether a merger is likely to substantially prevent or lessen competition. These may include but are not limited to: (1) Market Definition, (2) Market Concentration, (3) Horizontal Mergers and their Possible Unilateral and Coordinated Effects, (4) Non-Horizontal Mergers and their Possible Foreclosure and Coordinated Effects, (5) Barriers to Entry, (6) Countervailing Power, (7) Efficiencies, ( Failing Undertakings.

The primary criterion of M&A policy is to set threshold to examine whether a M&A needs to be notified is based on thresholds fixed based on value of assets and turnover of the parties to the combination, or the assets and turnover of the group to which the parties belong.

The assets and turnover of the enterprise over which the acquirer already has direct or indirect control will also be considered in addition to the figures of assets and turnover of the acquirer and the enterprise being acquired, while applying the individual threshold criteria as stated above.

A concentration must be notified to the Authority if the combined annual turnover of the undertakings concerned exceeds a certain amount in different countries. The term "concentrations" about such mergers, acquisitions and agreements. Bangladesh Competition Commission have no M&A policy and no reporting threshold yet.

M&A plays a critical role in the economy, and smart competition policy is vital to ensure M&A activity is pro-competition.The search for technology has always been an M&A strategy. Such acquisitions or joint ventures whose fundamental purpose is to create or protect firm value through the acquisition of technology. Mergers and acquisitions based on synergies between the operations of merging firms may lead to substantial cost savings which may get passed on to the consumers in the form of lower prices and may contribute to the process of innovation.

M&As are not per se illegal. The prohibition of anti-competitive concentration is one of the three core areas of a competition law (Cartel, misuse of dominant position and anti-competitive(M&A). Combining the activities of different companies can allow for a more cost-efficient development and distribution of products and services. This can make the company, and by extension the industry, more competitive.

The writer is a Non-Government Adviser, Bangladesh Competition Commission

Source: https://www.observerbd.com/news.php?id=468959

9

AI Transformer / Google AI Proposes Transformer FAM

« on: April 21, 2024, 11:39:30 AM »

Google AI Proposes TransformerFAM: A Novel Transformer Architecture that Leverages a Feedback Loop to Enable the Neural Network to Attend to Its Latent Representations

Transformers have revolutionized deep learning, yet their quadratic attention complexity limits their ability to process infinitely long inputs. Despite their effectiveness, they suffer from drawbacks such as forgetting information beyond the attention window and needing help with long-context processing. Attempts to address this include sliding window attention and sparse or linear approximations, but they often must catch up at large scales. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, particularly the link between attention and working memory, there’s a proposed solution: incorporating attention to its latent representations via a feedback loop within the Transformer blocks, potentially leading to the emergence of working memory in Transformers.

Google LLC researchers have developed TransformerFAM, a unique Transformer architecture employing a feedback loop to enable self-attention to the network’s latent representations, facilitating the emergence of working memory. This innovation improves Transformer performance on long-context tasks across various model sizes (1B, 8B, and 24B) without adding weights, seamlessly integrating with pre-trained models. TransformerFAM maintains past information indefinitely, promisingly handling infinitely long input sequences for LLMs. Without introducing new weights, TransformerFAM allows the reuse of pre-trained checkpoints. Fine-tuning TransformerFAM with LoRA for 50k steps significantly enhances performance across 1B, 8B, and 24B Flan-PaLM LLMs.

Prior attempts to incorporate feedback mechanisms in Transformers mainly focused on passing output activations from top layers to lower or intermediate ones, neglecting potential representational gaps. While some research compressed information blockwise, none ensured infinite propagation—recurrent cross-attention between blocks and feedback from upper layers integrated past information to subsequent blocks. To overcome quadratic complexity in Transformer context length approaches like sparse attention and linear approximations were explored. Alternatives to attention-based Transformers include MLP-mixer and State Space Models. TransformerFAM draws inspiration from Global Workspace Theory, aiming for a unified attention mechanism for processing various data types.

Two primary approaches are commonly employed in handling long-context inputs: increasing computational resources or implementing Sliding Window Attention (SWA). SWA, introduced by Big Bird, partitions the input into blocks, caching information block by block, a strategy termed Block Sliding Window Attention (BSWA). Unlike standard SWA, BSWA attends to all information within the ring buffer without masking out past keys and values. It employs two hyperparameters, block size, and memory segment, to control the size and scope of attended information. While BSWA offers linear complexity compared to the quadratic complexity of standard Transformers, it possesses a limited receptive field. This limitation necessitates further innovation to address long-context dependencies effectively.

FAM is developed in response to this challenge, building upon BSWA’s blockwise structure. FAM integrates feedback activations into each block, dubbed virtual activations, enabling the dynamic propagation of global contextual information across blocks. This architecture fulfills key requirements such as integrated attention, block-wise updates, information compression, and global contextual storage. Incorporating FAM enriches representations and facilitates the propagation of comprehensive contextual information, surpassing the limitations of BSWA. Despite the initial concern of potential inefficiency due to the feedback mechanism, the vectorized map-based self-attention in blocks ensures efficient training and minimal impact on memory consumption and training speed, maintaining parity with TransformerBSWA.

In the movie “Memento,” the protagonist’s struggle with anterograde amnesia parallels the current limitations of LLMs. While LLMs possess vast long-term memory capabilities, their short-term memory is restricted by attention windows. TransformerFAM offers a solution to addressing anterograde amnesia in LLMs, leveraging attention-based working memory inspired by neuroscience. The study hints at a path toward resolving the memory challenge in deep learning, a crucial precursor to tackling broader issues like reasoning.

Source: https://www.marktechpost.com/2024/04/17/google-ai-proposes-transformerfam-a-novel-transformer-architecture-that-leverages-a-feedback-loop-to-enable-the-neural-network-to-attend-to-its-latent-representations/#:~:text=Latent%20Representations%20%2D%20MarkTechPost-,Google%20AI%20Proposes%20TransformerFAM%3A%20A%20Novel%20Transformer%20Architecture%20that%20Leverages,Attend%20to%20Its%20Latent%20Representations&text=Transformers%20have%20revolutionized%20deep%20learning,to%20process%20infinitely%20long%20inputs.

10

Future Bangladesh 2050 / Can Bangladesh become a global leader in IT?

« on: April 21, 2024, 11:25:07 AM »

Can Bangladesh become a global leader in IT?

Bangladesh needs a skilled workforce to capitalise on this potential of IT. Photo: TBS

Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. The global IT boom presents a golden opportunity, but challenges remain.

The relentless march of artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT) underscores the critical importance of information technology (IT) for nations worldwide. A robust IT sector fosters rapid access to information, a cornerstone of national economic progress. We are witnessing a global rise in prominent IT firms, leading to the development of thriving IT sectors in many countries.

Asian nations are actively capitalising on this trend by creating environments that attract international IT investment. Major players like Microsoft, Apple, and Samsung strategically invest in Asia to benefit from cost advantages.

Bangladesh, with its highly skilled and cost-effective workforce compared to regional competitors like India, Malaysia, and China, is well-positioned to seize these opportunities.

Bangladesh needs a robust framework for attracting foreign investment, a comprehensive nationwide IT infrastructure, and a skilled workforce to capitalise on this potential fully. Bangladesh's software and IT-enabled services (ITES) sector demonstrates significant growth potential.

Several factors drive this, including a large pool of talented young workers, supportive government initiatives, proactive leadership from the Bangladesh Association of Software and Information Services (BASIS), and positive media coverage.

The IT sector plays a transformative role in developing countries like Bangladesh, offering many economic and societal benefits. This sector encompasses many services, including IT-enabled services (ITES), e-commerce, artificial intelligence, outsourcing, and software and hardware production. These services are essential for enhancing productivity, streamlining business operations, and fostering economic growth, especially in a competitive global environment.

Furthermore, the IT sector dramatically improves governance efficiency and accessibility. Increased transparency through IT facilitates better management and delivery of essential government services like healthcare, education, and consumer rights protection.

The IT sector contributes significantly to economic growth by creating employment opportunities across various skill levels, from software developers to customer service representatives. Exporting IT services generates valuable foreign exchange earnings, bolstering the country's foreign reserves and reducing trade deficits.

Additionally, freelance IT service providers contribute a substantial source of revenue through outsourcing. Investment in IT education and training programmes enhances the workforce's skillset, making them globally competitive and adaptable to technological advancements.

Moreover, the IT sector fosters a culture of innovation, entrepreneurship, and startups, encouraging the development of new products, services, and business models.

Under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's leadership, the current government of Bangladesh is demonstrably committed to bridging the digital divide between rural and urban areas by leveraging technological advancements and implementing various government initiatives.

As industry professionals observe, local entrepreneurs are securing significant outsourcing contracts for multiple services, including back-office operations, image processing, graphic design, animation, data entry, communication services, accounting, legal process outsourcing, and data analytics.

Bangladesh's IT sector is experiencing impressive growth. Freelancing alone contributes significantly, with around 650,000 individuals generating $500 million annually. IT companies are also seeing a rise, with exports reaching $282.77 million in the July-December period of 2022–23, a jump from $208.09 million in the same period of 2021–22 (data from the Export Promotion Bureau).

According to the Bangladesh Association of Software and Information Services (BASIS), annual IT exports are $1.5 billion. With ambitious goals, Bangladesh aims to reach $5 billion in exports by 2025 and $20 billion by 2031. We expect this growth to generate 3 million IT jobs by 2025.

North America remains the primary export market, with the USA leading. However, recent years have seen the rise of prominent destinations like the UK, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

Beyond these established markets, Bangladeshi IT companies are achieving success in the mobile applications and communications sectors of Malaysia, Singapore, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa, adding to their regular exports to Australia and Japan.

While Bangladesh's IT industry is booming, it's helpful to consider regional competitors. India's tech sector, for instance, amassed export revenues of a staggering $227 billion in fiscal year 2022.

Factors, including rapid industry progress, government initiatives like reduced trade obstacles, lifted import tariffs on tech goods, and significant foreign investments, have contributed to this growth. India's outsourcing sector alone holds a $140 billion share of the $500 billion global market, compared to Bangladesh's current $700 million.

Similarly, Malaysia's government-backed IT sector has seen impressive expansion, establishing 800 new IT companies, over 98,000 new jobs, and attracting 200 foreign companies with billions in investments.

Pakistan's IT sector also shows promise, with exports in information and communication technology reaching $2.62 billion in fiscal year 2022. Favourable policies, including incentives for repatriating earnings and creating a dedicated support council, are credited with this growth.

Pakistani IT firms are showcasing their innovations at the LEAP technology exhibition in Riyadh, aiming to attract further investment from Saudi Arabia. This focus on facilitating cross-border payments allows Pakistani exporters to capitalise on foreign markets.

The IT sector in Bangladesh boasts significant potential, but to fully thrive, some key challenges need close evaluation and improvement.

One major hurdle is the lack of highly skilled professionals. This talent gap hinders the industry's competitiveness in the global market. Furthermore, insufficient infrastructure, including unreliable internet connectivity and power supply, impedes business growth and efficient operations.

The regulatory environment also presents challenges. Complex frameworks and bureaucratic procedures can deter foreign investors seeking smooth market entry and expansion. Additionally, cyber threats and data security vulnerabilities pose a significant risk to the sector's sustainability.

Another concern is the prevalence of unofficial currency exchange practices. Numerous companies and independent professionals tend to bypass official channels to benefit from a higher exchange rate for the dollar. This undermines transparency and financial stability within the sector.

Finally, the software industry faces a dynamic and competitive landscape. Large and established local firms and smaller, agile companies create formidable competition for new ventures launched by smaller players. This competitive pressure can be a double-edged sword, fostering innovation while making it difficult for newcomers to gain a foothold.

Bangladesh is well-positioned to capitalise on the growing global demand for IT services. The current administration, under the Awami League, is actively fostering this growth with numerous initiatives aimed at transforming Bangladesh into a robust IT hub.

One key advantage Bangladesh offers is a large, relatively low-cost workforce, making it an attractive destination for IT outsourcing and software development. Since 2018, the government has further incentivised this sector by providing a 10% cash incentive on software exports, diversifying the nation's foreign exchange earners beyond the apparel industry.

Technology has also enhanced affordability and accessibility. The government exempts all taxes and duties on imported computer hardware and software, promoting the widespread use of PCs in Bangladesh.

Additionally, the government has simplified tax-free export-earning remittance procedures, enabling businesses to retain 40% of their earnings in foreign currency. The recent increase in cash incentives on remittances, raised from 2.5% to 5%, further sweetens the deal.

Beyond these economic incentives, the government is committed to creating a supportive legal environment. The Intellectual Property Rights Law protects innovation, while the Digital Security Act 2018 safeguards the sector from cyber threats.

Perhaps most critically, Bangladesh boasts sufficient energy resources to support a thriving IT industry. The creation of high-tech parks has the potential to transform the landscape significantly. These specialised zones offer essential infrastructure, resources, and assistance tailored to technology-driven enterprises.

The government has established high-tech parks nationwide, including the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Hi-Tech Park in Gazipur and the Janata Tower Software Technology Park in Dhaka. These state-of-the-art facilities provide high-speed internet, advanced telecommunication infrastructure, and uninterrupted power supply, fostering the success of technology-based businesses.

Bangladesh has a network of approximately 28 High-Tech Parks (HTPs), Software Technology Parks (STPs), and IT Training and Incubation Centres. While some are already operational, others are under construction, reflecting ongoing efforts to expand this vital infrastructure.

Additionally, the recent sanctioning of more high-tech park projects demonstrates the government's unwavering commitment to nurturing the IT sector. The Bangladesh Hi-Tech Park Authority (BHTPA) oversees these projects, ensuring their successful implementation and maintenance.

With these initiatives, Bangladesh has made significant strides toward becoming a "Digital Bangladesh." However, continued investment and development are crucial to capitalise on the global IT boom fully. Bangladesh must strive to attract foreign investors by further enhancing the IT sector's competitiveness, particularly compared to other technologically advanced and well-funded Asian countries.

Developing countries like India, Pakistan, China, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines can flourish in their IT sectors and earn foreign revenue by prioritising education in science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics (STEAM) fields alongside vocational training programs. This will develop a skilled workforce capable of handling high-value projects.

Governments can stimulate growth by creating favourable policies, tax incentives, and regulatory frameworks to attract foreign investment and nurture local IT businesses. Encouraging innovation is key, achieved through funding research institutions, establishing tech parks, and fostering collaboration between academia and industry.

Building trust and attracting global clients requires robust cybersecurity infrastructure and regulations to protect digital assets. Additionally, revising foreign exchange regulations and revenue policies can streamline operations.

Entrepreneurship is crucial. Governments can support young, tech-savvy graduates (including those returning from abroad) who are already launching successful IT ventures despite local and global challenges. Increased support through funding, mentorship, and incubation facilities can nurture a vibrant startup ecosystem.

Furthermore, exploring subcontracting opportunities in technologically advanced Asian countries such as India and China can be beneficial.

For instance, Bangladesh has the potential to draw in smaller-scale companies that larger nations may overlook. Collaboration between countries can further accelerate growth, with India and China potentially assisting Bangladesh in expanding its IT sector.

The success of the IT sector relies on both the public and private sectors working together: promoting IT careers to young people, fostering entrepreneurship through startup capital, or facilitating easy bank loans for launching IT businesses can unlock immense potential.

Writer:



Dr Md Sazzad Hossain
Member
University Grants Commission of Bangladesh (UGC)

Dr. Md Sazzad is also a Senior Professor, Researcher and academic teaching advisor with extensive experience.

Source: https://www.tbsnews.net/thoughts/can-bangladesh-become-global-leader-it-831726

11

Generative AI / Experts predict AI could one day do all our jobs better

« on: April 20, 2024, 11:55:59 AM »

Experts predict AI could one day do all our jobs better - but workers claim it already does

Overview:

Experts predict a 50-50 chance machines could take over all our jobs within a century. But a poll of 16,000 workers has found many employees believe AI could do it already.

For more details, please visit the following link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13315791/amp/Experts-predict-AI-one-day-clever-job-workers-claim-are.html

12

AI in Education / How immediate feedback motivates both students and educators

« on: April 20, 2024, 11:50:09 AM »

How immediate feedback motivates both students and educators

Digital tools can give teachers on-the-spot feedback from students and students access to their results and progress in real time. László Tornóci looks at a changing landscape from both sides

Digitalisation is gaining ground in all aspects of our lives, and we can be sure it will fundamentally reshape classical university education as well. We need to be cautious, though; new technology will not automatically solve the problems of education, but it can provide new ways of addressing them.

The digital transformation has benefits for students and educators. In the following, I would like to offer ideas from both sides of teaching, without claiming to be exhaustive.

1. Educators can benefit from immediate feedback

From the educators’ point of view, motivation is important not only in keeping them interested in building their own academic careers but also in being able to effectively pass on their knowledge to the next generation and achieve teaching excellence. Continuous monitoring of teaching quality through appropriate methods can give new impetus to teachers, motivating them to improve and to apply the most effective pedagogical and digital methods for the curriculum.

1. Spotlight: Pedagogies to reinvigorate your teaching
2. How to get students to play their part in the flipped classroom
3. How to manage assessment feedback in large classes? Get students involved

Of course, changing the interests of instructors is a financial and political issue, but it also requires a proper quality-management system and, closely linked to this, some kind of metric to help distinguish between good and bad teachers. The student review of teaching work, which is a legal requirement in Hungarian universities, for example, points in this direction. However, the experience of recent years has highlighted several problems: results of these reviews are often out of date by the time they are available, students complain that nothing changes if they speak out against something, and lecturers complain that students who were not even there can give their opinions on a lecture.

Allowing students to evaluate a lecture or a seminar immediately after the class via their mobile phones addresses this issue. “On-the-spot” feedback makes the data more credible and speeds up the whole process. Semmelweis University uses a dedicated website for this purpose. The database can be accessed with different privileges: everyone can see their own data and heads of departments can see the data of their departments. Results are available in real time, but more detailed offline analysis is also possible. The move to electronic data management gives the university the opportunity to put in place a robust and consistent quality-management system that can improve the quality of education, not just in words but in reality.

In addition to quality management, continuous pedagogical training of teachers is also important. To this end, Semmelweis University has set up the Centre for Educational Development, Methodology and Organisation to support teaching. It offers teachers training with the help of hybrid methods and also creates active online teaching communities, where teachers can share their methodological or technical experience of online teaching. These cross-faculty teaching communities, which themselves use digital techniques (such as Zoom and video-sharing platform Kaltura) can make an important contribution to the spread of modern teaching concepts and digital teaching methods on campus.

2. Students’ perspectives on digital education

During their university years, students not only lose a significant amount of the initial enthusiasm that got them into higher education, but research also shows that between 25 per cent and 55 per cent of medical students show signs of psychological burnout. This complex problem affects medical schools in general, and internationally, for several reasons. Students are overwhelmed, feeling they have to learn a lot of unnecessary things that they will never apply. They have little incentive to study during the semester and for many of them it is left to the exam period. So, instead of being a pleasure, studying is a source of anxiety and stress. In addition, they often feel that their exam results are not commensurate with the work they have put into studying.

A solution to alleviate these problems could be to use the modern student feedback system described above and to take its results into account in the design of course requirements. Students should be motivated to study regularly, not by dreaded midterm demonstrations but by interesting, attractive, colourful exercises week after week (for example, by creating an interactive digital curriculum that is attractive to students). This will give them more pleasure and a sense of achievement. It can also be an effective way of learning the material, and one that might make them give up their performance-oriented attitude.

A digital curriculum is perfectly feasible through e-learning systems such as Moodle. Of particular note is the use of the H5P technology, which, based on the HTML5/Javascript web standards, allows the creation of a wide variety of highly attractive interactive learning materials in a simple way on a web interface. The Moodle e-learning system is fully integrated with H5P technology. These systems also keep a record of what student has completed which assignment and with what result. It is important to make students feel that learning is worthwhile and that the work they put into it will pay off.

The digital transformation of education is a process that is happening now. E-learning systems open up opportunities for us that, if used wisely, can make teaching and learning more enjoyable and effective. To take advantage of these new opportunities efficiently, a lot of work has to be done. We need to be flexible, to be able to break free from our ingrained habits, to learn and use new techniques and pedagogical methods. It is almost certain that digitalisation will also significantly change the curriculum and can reshuffle the rankings in higher education. Universities that heed the call of new times earlier will have much to gain.

Source: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/campus/how-immediate-feedback-motivates-both-students-and-educators

13

Generative AI / ELON ON ABUNDANCE, AI & HUMAN SURVIVAL

« on: April 20, 2024, 11:41:26 AM »

ELON ON ABUNDANCE, AI & HUMAN SURVIVAL

Two of my favorite sayings are “The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself” and “The day before something is a breakthrough, it’s a crazy idea.”

When it comes to “creating the future” and “promoting crazy ideas,” no one, literally no one, can hold a candle to Elon Musk.

While so many billionaires sit on their money, using it to make more money, Elon keeps on betting it all on his Massive Transformative Purpose and Moonshots.

If you take a moment to review the Forbes 400 list and ask yourself which of these billionaires are using a significant amount of their massive wealth to improve humanity, you get a very short list. Folks like Eric Schmidt, Marc Benioff, Sam Altman, Martine Rothblatt, MacKenzie Scott, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Tony Robbins are among those with a mission to improve humanity, take Moonshots, and solve grand challenges...

But it bears repeating that chief among the global changemakers is Elon.

I’ve had to pleasure to know Elon since 2001. He’s served on my Board of Trustees at XPRIZE, funded two different XPRIZEs (Gigaton Carbon Removal, and Global Learning), and is someone I consider a friend.

On two recent occasions, I sat down with Elon to discuss topics related to abundance vs. scarcity and humanity’s ability to survive digital super intelligence. The first was an X Spaces on January 4, 2024 (link here) and the second was over video on X during the Abundance Summit on March 19, 2024 (link here).

In this blog, I’d like to discuss some of the places we strongly agree, and reinforce his wisdom on a number of key points that all of us should be discussing in our board rooms and around our family dinner tables.

Why is the News So Negative?

In my conversation with Elon, he reflected: “The news is so negative. Frankly, on occasion when I accidentally read the news it just makes me sad. As you know, the daily news is really just an attempt to answer the question, ‘What is the worst thing that happened on Earth today?’ And with 8 billion people on Earth, somewhere on the planet, something horrible is happening every single day. But there's also great things happening every single day, and we just don’t hear about them on a consistent basis. The mainstream news media is basically out to scare you. They’re not likely to say, ‘Hey, it's been a pretty good day, overall violence is at an all-time low.’”

The reality is that the wiring of our brains (100 billion neurons, 100 trillion synaptic connections) evolved a “default operating software” focused on fear and scarcity, keeping us alive during an era of constant danger, and limited food.

Our ever-present “negativity bias” has us routinely paying 10 times more attention to negative news than positive news. What was once useful in scanning for snakes or lions is now on overload as we are bombarded by a ceaseless stream of negative local and global news, all vying for our attention.

And of course, the news media knows that, feeding us a 10-to-1 negative-to-positive news ratio to capture our eyeballs. This is why the old newsroom adage "If it bleeds, it leads" holds so true even today.

It’s hardly surprising then that we find ourselves in a state of heightened pessimism, often feeling as though the world around us is spiraling out of control.

“It makes sense from an evolutionary point of view,” continues Elon. “We would respond more to danger than to reward since the consequences of danger could be fatal. On one hand, if you go over there, there's a lion that's going to eat you or some neighboring tribe that's going to kill you, and it's game over, your genes are out of the gene pool. Whereas good news, like a bush with berries, while nice to have, is optional. In one case, you die and in the other case, you're hungry. But death is worse than hunger and anyone who did not respond more to negative news than positive news didn't make it. Anyone complacent about the lion was eaten by the lion.”

I loved and fully agree with Elon’s final conclusion on this point, namely: “I think as a general rule of living, it is better to err on the side of being optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. And if you're going to err on one side or the other, it's just a higher quality of life to err on the side of being optimistic and risk being wrong than pessimistic and right. Optimism is going to make you happy.”

Our Future of Abundance

“Humanity is not constrained in any real fashion,” said Elon. “I thought your first book, Abundance, was pretty accurate in terms of the future being one of abundance, where essentially any goods and services will be available in quantity to everyone. Basically, if you want something, you can just have it. Essentially, AI and robotics will drop the cost of goods and services to almost nothing.”

I agree with Elon, and it’s hard for most of society to see an unbridled future of abundance. Ultimately, nothing is truly scarce, and technology is a force that consistently converts scarcity into abundance.

There is no better example than energy. Two-hundred years ago, energy was scarce. We once hunted whales to get whale oil to light our nights. At the industry's peak, between 1846 and 1852, an estimated 8,000 whales were slaughtered each year for their oil.

But technology progressed, and the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century ignited our reliance on coal, providing a simple heating source to drive powerful machinery. In 1800, global coal production was estimated at 10 million tons and by the turn of the 20th century, this figure had skyrocketed to 1 billion tons.

Beyond coal, humanity next pursued oil, and soon, just like coal displaced whale oil, soon solar and fusion will displace our petroleum economy.

“When it comes to energy,” says Elon, “at Tesla we've made extremely detailed presentations on how to make Earth completely self-sustaining from an energy standpoint. There is no shortage of raw materials for lithium-ion batteries and for solar. Even if you powered all of industry on Earth electrically (including heating and transport), you could do that with solar and lithium-ion batteries and not come anywhere close to depleting the resources of Earth.”

Elon continues, “Today, battery production is growing at a rate several times faster than vehicle production, in some cases up to 10 times faster, due to massive demand for batteries. As electricity usage increases, there will be a need to buffer the grid which will yield more capacity, because currently, most electrical grids waste a lot of energy by not buffering. Power plants are sized for peak demand, like on a hot summer day, leading to excess capacity at other times. By using batteries for energy storage (buffering), the grid's output could be doubled or tripled.”

Reflecting further on a future of abundance, Elon concluded that there is no meaningful limit to the economic output of humanity, “If you think about what an economy is: it’s basically a number of people times average productivity per person. At the point at which we have advanced robotics—such as Tesla’s Optimus—then there's really no meaningful limit to what the economic output would be.”

“Ultimately,” finished Elon, “I think the only scarcity that will exist will be scarcity that we just decide to create artificially, or something like a unique work of artwork.”

The Great AI Debate: Greatest Hope or Gravest Threat?

The primary theme of my 2024 Abundance Summit was “The Great AI Debate,” namely: will digital super intelligence become humanity’s greatest hope or our gravest threat?

During the Summit, Elon joined the debate, coming in over video on X, via Starlink, while flying from Austin to LA in his jet.

“The rate at which AI is growing really boggles the mind. I've never seen any technology move as fast as AI,” Elon began. “At this point, there is no way to stop AI. It is accelerating whether people like it or not. That's why, together with a number of really smart people, we created xAI to build what is intended to be a maximally truth seeking and maximally curious AI. ‘Understanding the universe’ is xAI’s goal and the company motto.”

As Mo Gawdat wrote in his wonderful book Scary Smart: “My hope is that together with AI, we can create a utopia that serves humanity, rather than a dystopia that undermines it.”

During the Abundance Summit, members heard Ray Kurzweil, who predicted with extraordinary accuracy way back in 1999, nearly 30 years ago, say that AI would achieve human-level intelligence before the end of this decade.

And while we are rapidly approaching that intellectual milestone, the exponential growth of machine intelligence won’t stop at this arbitrary point.

Twenty doublings more will yield a million-fold improvement, and thirty doublings a billion-fold more intelligence than you or me.

“I have to give credit to Ray Kurzweil for being remarkably accurate in his predictions on when we create human-level AI,” said Elon. “But, if anything, I think he was perhaps a bit conservative in his predictions.”

Elon continued, “The amount of dedicated AI compute appears to be growing by a factor of 10x every 6 months. So, it’s basically close to a 100x improvement per year, at least for the next few years. And it seems like a lot of the data centers, maybe most of the data centers that are currently supporting conventional compute, will ultimately transition to AI compute.”

The field is moving at blinding speed. So how do we think about having AI progeny that may soon be one-billion-fold more intelligent than us? Which, by the way, is numerically equivalent to the intellectual difference between a hamster and a human.

With that kind of raw power and intelligence, we can anticipate that AIs will discover many new breakthroughs in physics, realize ingenious solutions to problems like famine, poverty, the climate crisis, and human mortality. But how do we harness AI for good?

 

Elon answered this question as follows: “I think the way in which an AI or an AGI is created is very important. You grow an AGI. It's almost like raising a kid, but it’s a super genius godlike kid, and it matters how you raise such a kid.

“I've thought a lot about AI safety,” he continued. “My ultimate conclusion is that the best way to achieve AI safety is to grow the AI in terms of the foundation model and then fine tune it to be really truthful. Don't force it to lie even if the truth is unpleasant. That’s very important. Don't make the AI lie.”

During my conversation with Elon, I pushed him on his view regarding humanity’s future. “When we ultimately create a digital superintelligence that can enable this future of abundance,” started Elon, “there is also some chance that a digital superintelligence could end humanity. I agree with Geoffrey Hinton that the probability of such a dystopian future is something like 10% or 20%. It's difficult to predict exactly, but I think that the probable positive scenario outweighs the negative scenario. But we shouldn't be complacent about that future. Complacency and entitlement are not a recipe for success.”

Elon concluded his remarks to the gathering of 500 CEOs at the Abundance Summit with both a hopeful and cautionary thought: “I think hopefully we can have an outcome that is similar to the Iain Banks Culture books, which envision a semi-utopian AI future. AI is happening fast, so I think we just need to steer it in as positive a direction as possible and try to do whatever we can to increase the probability of a great future.”

Source: https://www.diamandis.com/blog/elon-abundance-ai-human-survival

14

AI for Professionals / 5 ChatGPT Productivity Prompts That Can Cut Your Workload In Half

« on: April 16, 2024, 01:03:23 PM »

5 ChatGPT Productivity Prompts That Can Cut Your Workload In Half

5 ChatGPT productivity prompts (cut your workload in half) GETTY

What if you could achieve the same outcome in half the time? Then you’d have choices. You could work less, or you could double up and get even further. But how do you get there? Ambitious entrepreneurs are intentional about how they spend their time. They work smart as well as hard. With so many AI tools around, there’s no excuse not to ask the question: How can I leverage what already exists to free me from my most mundane tasks?

ChatGPT can help you figure it out and make your plan. Use these prompts to do less of the mundane and create more space for your genius. Copy, paste and edit the square brackets in ChatGPT, and keep the same chat window open so the context carries through.

Work Smarter And Reduce Your Workload With ChatGPT

Stop Micromanaging

If you’ve trained someone to do something, you have to trust that they will. Otherwise, what’s the point? But leaders everywhere delegate then worry. They see something being done in a different way to how they would do it, and they panic and interfere, taking the project back over or micromanaging its new owner. Not the plan. Your job is leadership, not oversight. Shift from hands-on management to strategic leadership for the autonomy, efficiency and happiness of you and your team.

“I have recently delegated [describe task you have delegated] to [describe the role or person who now looks after it]. I’m concerned about [describe your concerns]. Act as a business coach and ask me questions, one by one, to understand whether I have good reason to be concerned, and therefore what I should do, or if I am simply being controlling and micromanaging, without any need. Ask the questions one by one, help me understand my process of delegating this task to ascertain whether I did sufficient preparation.”

Structure Your Meetings

Most Zooms could be Looms. Most Looms could be emails. Knowledge workers across the land are saying in ten sentences what could be said in three. Don’t let that be you. Start with meetings. Make every meeting matter when you remove the nonessential chatter and go in with a plan. Cut to the chase with clear agendas and defined outcomes, saving time and speeding up decision-making.

“I want to stop wasting time in meetings, and require every meeting to have a defined agenda that is stuck to by every member. Acting as an assertive productivity consultant, ask me questions about my next meeting, its attendees and purpose. From this information, create a concise agenda that can be shared before. Add a sentence I can use when sharing this agenda, to explain to attendees that going off topic cannot happen in this meeting, and we should work together to make that happen. Before beginning the questioning, require me to type, ‘Let’s end the meeting madness!’”

Create An Email Autoresponder

Not only is there meeting madness among entrepreneurs and business leaders, but email madness too. Most of your emails aren’t that important. Most are people asking things they could have googled, or stalling instead of taking action, passing the buck to buy them more time. Let’s end the email madness with an all-encompassing autoresponder that empowers someone to find the answer and frees you of instant responses. A good one of these can be a lifesaver. No one will be offended to receive it, but they’ll understand how busy you are. Help them help themselves. Manage expectations and filter urgency, keeping you focused on your real work.

“Create an email autoresponder so people who email me can progress their work without waiting for a response from me. Open a dialogue where you ask me what people often email me about, inviting me to paste in a typical message I receive. Next, ask for my typical answer. Keep going with these emails, one by one, until we have covered the most popular topics. Then, collate the information into a concise yet helpful email responder that I can put in place. At the start of the email, explain that I get a lot of enquiries and I put these FAQs together to help people find a way forward. Use my writing style to create the response: [Include an email you wrote for context]..”

Automate Your Perfectionism

Perfectionism could be holding you back. If you’re operating at a high standard, you’re going to make mistakes. Progress means learning from errors and going again, not beating yourself up or trying to avoid them all together, perhaps by not showing up at all. Use ChatGPT to help with your editing, then let good enough be your best friend. Maintain high standards without the pitfalls of perfectionism.

“I am a recovering perfectionist. Perfectionism has held me back in the past, but not any more. Your task is to assess the work I’m about to publish and find any errors that I should fix. After telling me where the errors are, tell me that you’re proud of the effort I put into this work. Help me realize that putting in maximum effort and being prepared to learn and iterate is more important than everything being exactly right the first time. Not everything requires perfection, and shipping the work is often more important.”

Organize Your Priorities

Focus fuels success. People who get distracted by breaking news, notifications and endlessly scrolling newsfeeds are neglecting their genius. Make focus your superpower. Develop a system that separates must-dos from might-dos, ensuring your energy is invested in high-impact activities. When you’re doing your work, be all in. Shut off everything else, close the door, put your phone on silent. Nothing should be able to pop up and steal you away, you’re better than that.

“Your task is to organize my day’s work in order of what will make the most difference to my business. I will paste my task list, and you should ask me questions, one by one, first to ascertain my number one business goal and then to work out which tasks contribute to it. All that matters is my one business goal, everything else can wait. Help me stick to that one goal by prioritizing my work and reminding me why it’s important to do it in that order and not get distracted.”

Cut Your Workload In Half — ChatGPT Prompts To Do Only What Matters

If you could stop micromanaging, structure every meeting and stick to the plan, reduce pressure to respond to emails, manage your perfectionism and follow your task list in priority order, you’d be unstoppable. There would be a machine-like magic to your work. People would know you were on a mission. The stars would align and the path to your dream future would appear in front of you. Most people don’t get there. They waste time, they waste chances and they waste their potential. Use these ChatGPT prompts to open your mind and uncap your limits.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jodiecook/2024/04/15/5-chatgpt-productivity-prompts-cut-your-workload-in-half/?sh=2903dcbc1b4d

15

Robotics / FLYING CAR LEADERS: ARCHER & JOBY AVIATION

« on: April 15, 2024, 03:36:36 PM »

FLYING CAR LEADERS: ARCHER & JOBY AVIATION

Flying cars are finally here.

You can call them “eVTOLs” (electric vertical take-off/landing) or “air taxis,” I personally will call them flying cars.

After decades of waiting, the convergence of a few key technologies and factors will enable commercial service to start in 2025:

DEP or direct electric propulsion: special electric motors

Batteries: higher energy density, cheaper batteries, mainly driven by Tesla

Materials: lightweight, strong materials

Sensors: a new generation of sensors

Computation/AI: the ability to integrate all data for safe flights

Regulatory Support: governments are finally ready to license this tech

Regarding this last bullet, in November 2022 the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed new rules that help pave the way for commercial air taxi operations by 2025, adding something called “powered-lift” operations to its regulations.

Former acting FAA Administrator Billy Nolen has said this about the future timeline:

“We know that when the Los Angeles Olympics get underway in 2028, air taxis will be in high demand. We may see some of them in the years leading up, but nowhere near the scale in 2028.”

Industry reports suggest the potential for a $30 billion marketplace by 2030.

In today’s blog, we’ll look at the two leading flying car companies: Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation.

Let’s dive in…

Archer Aviation

Last month, I hosted Archer Aviation CEO Adam Goldstein and Chief Commercial Officer Nikhil Goel at the Abundance Summit.

In September of 2021, Archer Aviation went public (via SPAC) for $3.8 billion.

Today, their flying car design called Midnight boasts an impressive performance envelope:

Payload: Pilot + 4 paying passengers + luggage

Propulsion: 12 electric engines supported by 6 independent battery packs

Range: Up to 100 miles

Speed: Up to 150 miles per hour

Altitude: Typically, 1,500 feet (below 5,000 feet)

Charge time: 12-minute charge time between back-to-back 20-mile flights

The year 2023 marked a pivotal milestone in the development of Midnight, as the company conducted its first full-scale, uncrewed, and tethered test flight. This achievement, the result of four years of rigorous flight testing, paved the way for further advancements.

Looking ahead, Archer is poised to conduct an astounding 400 tests of its Midnight aircraft in 2024, a testament to their unwavering dedication to perfecting this groundbreaking technology.

On the regulatory front, Archer has made significant strides. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recently approved certification plans for Archer's production aircraft, and the company has announced that the first three piloted aircraft are currently under construction. These conforming Midnight aircraft will begin piloted flight testing later this year and will subsequently undergo “for credit” flight testing with the FAA as Archer progresses towards commercialization.

The company has secured an impressive indicative order book of up to 700 aircraft, valued at $3.5 billion, from major players such as United Airlines in the US, InterGlobe in India, and Air Chateau in the United Arab Emirates.

So, when can we expect to see Archer's Midnight overhead?

The company has set an ambitious goal of bringing the Midnight eVTOL to market by 2025. In partnership with Atlantic Aviation, Archer is developing electric aircraft infrastructure at existing assets, including Santa Monica Municipal Airport (SMO). Early launch markets will focus on highly congested cities such as Los Angeles, New York, and Miami, with initial routes connecting airports to city centers. As availability of the Midnight increases, services will expand to other locations across Atlantic's portfolio.

To illustrate the transformative potential of eVTOL technology, consider a trip from Santa Monica to Malibu. While this 12-mile journey could take over an hour by road, an air taxi would cover the distance in a mere five minutes, with each passenger paying roughly $30 to $40—less than the cost of a rideshare vehicle.

Joby Aviation

Founded 14 years ago, Joby was the first serious flying car company, and the first to go public in August of 2021 for $4.5 billion. And, even more impressive, in 2022, Joby distinguished itself as the first eVTOL firm to receive US airworthiness certification—a notable badge of honor in a burgeoning industry.

Among the main investors bolstering Joby's successes are Delta Air Lines and the automotive giant Toyota (which has actively aided the air taxi manufacturer in its plans to erect a factory in Ohio).

Here are the details of Joby’s eVTOL performance:

Payload: Pilot + 4 paying passengers + luggage (total capacity of 1,000 lbs.)
Propulsion: 6 electric dual-wound motors on 6 tilt-prop propellers
Range: Up to 150 miles
Speed: Up to 205 miles per hour
Altitude: Typically, 1,500 feet (below 5,000 feet)
In September 2023, Joby signed a significant contract with the US Air Force, valued at up to $131 million, and delivered its first eVTOL to Edwards Air Force Base in Southern California. This partnership involves collaboration with NASA to research the aircraft's performance in urban environments, providing valuable insights for air taxi development and the FAA.

Joby recently announced plans for a $500 million manufacturing plant in Ohio, set to begin construction in 2024, with the capacity to produce up to 500 aircraft annually.

CEO JoeBen Bevirt envisions Joby's eVTOLs as an integral part of aerial ridesharing networks by 2025. This vision took a significant step forward in November 2023 when Joby conducted the first eVTOL test flights in New York City. Furthermore, in February 2024, the company secured an exclusive six-year deal to operate air taxis in Dubai, with commercial operations expected to begin by early 2026.

The skies above are about to get a lot more interesting.

Why This Matters

Flying cars promise to redefine not just transportation, but also our very perception of accessibility and proximity.

As Archer gears up to manufacture 2,000 Midnight vehicles per year, and Joby exceeds 500 eVTOLs per year, the total production rate of flying cars will rival the production of all other flying aircraft put together.

We are poised to embrace a world where the distant becomes near, the inaccessible becomes reachable, and where time, traditionally lost in transit, is reclaimed.

Another benefit of eVTOLs will be an expansion of human connection and interaction. Communities once isolated by geographical challenges will now become integral parts of urban tapestries.

The age-old dichotomy of urban hustle and rural tranquility may very well converge, creating a harmonious blend of both worlds. As eVTOL technology continues its ascent, we are not just witnessing the evolution of travel; we are partaking in a holistic transformation of human experience.

Source: https://www.diamandis.com/blog/abundance-48-flying-car-leaders-archer-joby