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Topics - Anhar Sharif

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International seaborne trade in recent immediate past years gathered momentum with volume expanding 4 per cent in 2017. This is the highest record in last five years. Those countries have more than one sea ports are noticed to go up economically by leaps and bounds since the concerned ports are helping to expand their business through sea way easily. Asia region among others is being benefited much following excess seaborne trade. Among other continents in the world, Asia placed better position in respect of loading goods in its seaports. With the expanding trade on sea route, global economy is in good temper. Seaborne trade has been blessing to the developing and transition economies that are on the track of becoming developed economies shortly. Due to rise such kind of activities, trade surplus in transition economies has been almost doubled in last ten years. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its study revealed that around 4.4 out of total 10.7 billion tons of goods loaded in Asian seaports. Developing economies share of global goods unloaded rose to 63 per cent in 2017- UNCTAD also said. If the trend continues for long, I think the economies under least developed countries must stand before world with head high and proud. The trend of rising global trade through marine route began a few years back to a great extent against the backdrop of increasing global demand. Some countries that are land locked have been trying to make friendship to the countries belonging sea ports in order to ease trading activities. Most land locked countries lying in the African continent are in great danger since they have no alternative option for trading in cost-effective way. At present around 32 countries belong to the group of landlocked developing countries (LLDCs). 16 are located in Africa, 12 Asia, 2 in Latin America and 2 in Central and Eastern Europe. According to UNCTAD, in 2017, 10.7 billion tons of goods were loaded worldwide. 1.5 billion tons more than in 2012. Loading of dry cargo alone increased by 1.2 billion tons; crude oil, petroleum products and gas contributed the remaining 305 million tons to the overall increase. Asia was by far the largest trading region. In 2017, 4.4 billion tons of goods were loaded, and 6.5 billion tons unloaded, in Asian seaports. The other continents registered less than half of these amounts. The volumes of goods delivered to ports in Oceania were, at less than 200 million tons. Developing economies continue to make a major contribution to global seaborne trade. They account for almost two thirds of goods loaded and unloaded worldwide. Their share in seaborne trade imports, as measured by goods unloaded, has steadily increased over the last ten years, to reach 63 per cent in 2017. This trend has been driven strongly by developing economies in Asia. In developing economies of Asia and Oceania, about one quarter more goods were unloaded in 2017 than in 2012 In 2014, developing economies turned from net exporters into net importers of seaborne trade volumes. By 2017, they developed a deficit of 400 million tons, as compared to a surplus of 190 million tons in 2012. These figures, however, hide considerable differences across continents. Unlike developing economies in Asia and Oceania, and consistent with past trends, developing economies in America and Africa continued running significant surpluses in 2017. Transition economies have almost doubled their surplus over the last ten years, reaching 599 million tons in 2017. In developed economies, the deficit of 1.4 billion tons in 2007 almost vanished by 2017. It is said that landlocked countries face a good number of trade challenges while doing business with the countries that have sea ports. They face transit as well as custom problem at the time dispatching and receiving transported goods. Business cost in huge is noticed in the countries that have no sea facility. Truly speaking, landlocked countries see very poor flow of foreign direct investment. Because of having no sea facilities in that countries, business giants are not interested to invest there. So, the need for making easier ways for investors is a must so that they might appear in those countries with huge capital. Ongoing trade war among many developed economies has become barrier to increase seaborne trade. With a view to more volume of sea way trade, there is no alternative to reduce freight cost. Number of mother vessels is badly needed in this moment to address current need. If companies related to loading and unloading are aware of cutting longer time, the volume must be increased in the days to come. A speedy customs service might bring momentum seaborne trade. Needless to say, that Asian countries are in better position in respect of seaborne trading. But, still now three landlocked countries- Nepal, Bhutan and Afghanistan are facing many trade challenges due to having no easy transit facilities. Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar Economic corridor (BCIM-EC) might pave the ways these three countries to expand transit facilities more if implemented shortly. After ending trade war, World economy is set to expand at a rapid pace if sea routes can transport existing volume of goods.

Investment and Portfolio Management / US-China-EU trade war
« on: February 19, 2020, 08:50:00 AM »
Currently, some largest economies in the world are passing tough times with experiencing unfriendly trade terms imposed by Trump administration. Donald Trump gradually began to impose trade related terms and conditions on its competitors hours after being US president. Why Trump Administration is showing unfriendly attitude towards different leading economies for long is completely undiscovered to me. The concerned administration’s trade decision seems to be unwise because the decision is hampering world economy growth pace. US- based International Monetary Fund ( IMF) chief economist- Gita Gopinath has in the meantime projected that global gross domestic product ( GDP) would be reduced by 0.8 per cent due to tariff impose on China by Donald Trump. As a result of much discussed trade war between US and China, the world’s second largest economy is facing growth troubles with only 6 per cent that is lowest in 30 years. The another famed economies including euro zones are also being victimized for US unwise decision to impose tariff. US president Donald Trump generally known as business tycoon is also going to damage growth rate of EU by imposing tariff on goods ranging from French wine to Italian cheese, scotch whisky and Spanish olives. EU is expected to seek proper judgment from World Trade organization (WTO) shortly regarding resolving ongoing disputes. Italy- Euro zone’s third largest economy is already facing the impact of US-EU trade war. Italy’s economy remains stagnant with no trade activities for months. The trade dispute between the United States and China has roiled financial markets and has dragged global growth to its slowest pace since 2008-2009 financial crises. Global trade growth reached just 1 per cent in the first half of 2019, the weakest level since 2012. After expanding by 3.6 per cent in 2018 , the IMF now projects global trade volume will increase just 1.1 per cent in 2019. Trade growth was expected to rebound to 3.2 per cent in 2020- IMF high official elaborated. With viewing this alarming projection, the need for reforming some trade policies needs to be taken in hand. China is deeply thinking alternative ways how to overcome the ever first tough situation. I do believe Beijing would reform its policy with intellectual ways that helps to be grown very fast in the days to come. It is worrying that there comes no green signal from Trump Administration for ending the trade war. Donald Trump’s hasty move for resolving tariff issue with EU and China should be launched right now without delay as world economy is going to be clouded very soon. World economy is set to lose its tempo. As reported in newspapers, global economy faces troubles shortly since many leading economies in the world have recently been locked into conflict one another. Persisting trade war between USA and China continues to widen following tariff hike imposed by US president Donald Trump. There needs to be mentioned here that Washington and Beijing talked about the issue to be resolved many times but Donald Trump’s green signal to resolve the burning issue had been completely absent. The world’s another emerging economy- India never wants China’s intervention in any affairs. China still now did not push its products in Indian market to a great extent. Even though, China did not gain the ability to set up business plants in India as India thinks China as a big competitor in trading arena. What should be noted here that Bangladesh and India never accepts any business proposal sent from the country- Pakistan? Again, Pakistan maintains close ties with China for trade interest. This is universal truth is that trade war among world leaders is not new at all. Every leader has an intention to win the race whenever trade related talks are held. For the economic interest of the country, the visiting countries’ heads want trade favors always. One of trade terms ` tariff’ has currently become the key issue behind the trade war between the United States and China- the major world’s two vibrant economies. China with high growth economy is trying best to end the conflict but Trump administration is very stick not to bow down before Beijing in respect of tariff issue that lasted for long 15 months. China’s GDP growth recorded 30-year low since US president Donald Trump did not want to relax the imposed tariff affecting business more than expectations. Currently, China’s trading partners and investors are closely watching the health of world’s second largest economy as the ongoing trade war with United States fuels fears about a global recession. It is worrying that in the days to come, the global economy is set to face a significant decline in gross domestic product. Against the backdrop of this downward trend of growth is only ongoing trade war among many countries. If this significant issue remains unresolved, the global economy might have fallen in great troubles with real spillover effects for emerging markets. To conclude, US president Donald Trump must relax tariff imposed to EU and China. World Influential president Mr Trump had better talk with WTO high ups ahead of imposing levies on China and EU. For the interest of keeping global economic momentum, there needs to be taken hasty steps to reform trade rules. WTO has a role to talk with Trump administration regarding withdrawing the imposed tariff. I want to say that Trump has no right to paralyze world economic image that was earned through efforts given from world prominent leaders and economists. — Md Mazadul Hoque is an economic analyst and currently serving at Social Islami Bank Ltd. Member- Bangladesh Economic association (BEA).

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